FXUS64 KTSA 181054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 450 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Wind chills in the single digits Sunday morning for much of E
OK and NW AR. Temperatures warm into the 40s and lower 50s this
afternoon.

- Another cold front arrives this evening and tonight, bringing
colder conditions for Monday.

- Low rain chances arrive to SE OK and W-Central AR Wednesday. A
pattern change may bring more active weather beginning next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

High pressure continues to pass through the region overnight with
decreasing winds and mostly clear skies. This will favor
effective radiational cooling areawide, with lows in the teens
and single digits in the typically colder valleys/ cold drainage
spots. High pressure exits to the south and east early Sunday
morning. This will foster the development of increasing
southwesterly winds, likely before sunrise in NE OK. This may help
to increase ambient temperatures slightly, though resultant wind
chills in the single digits (near 0 in NE OK and NW AR) will make
for a cold morning either way. Despite the very cold start to the
day, temperatures will warm nicely back into the 40s and 50s
under mostly sunny skies. A sfc trough passes through the area
during the afternoon, shifting winds out of the west-northwest but
with little sensible change in the airmass. A proper cold front
arrives Sunday evening and overnight, bringing much colder
temperatures back to the forecast on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A north-south gradient in high temperatures is expected for
Monday, with highs struggling to climb out of the 20s in the
north, and highs in the lower 40s near the Red River. Dry
conditions are likely to persist, though some very light snow
showers cannot be ruled out across parts of NE OK and NW AR as a
subtle wave passes overhead. With dry low level air in place,
chances are generally too low to mention in the forecast at this
time. Another chilly night is in store Monday night as high
pressure fills in with lows in the teens.

High pressure slides southeast of the area by Tuesday morning
with intensifying lee troughing ahead of the next storm system.
This results in breezy SW winds and warmer temperatures during the
day Tuesday. This pattern will also pull modified gulf air
northward into the southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a potent shortwave moving through the midwest will
force a cold front south. Latest guidance develops precipitation
ahead of the front Wednesday morning and afternoon across SE OK
and W AR, before being shunted to the south and east as the cold
front passes through. Rainfall is currently expected to remain
light, with most totals remaining less than a tenth of an inch.
High pressure follows for Thursday, promoting quiet conditions.
Guidance continues to suggest a pattern change by late week, with
W CONUS ridging breaking down and flow becoming more zonal to
southwesterly. Model solutions diverge greatly starting next
weekend, but a window of more active weather and colder
temperatures appears plausible to finish off the month. The first
such opportunity may arrive Friday- Saturday. Of course, trends
will continue to be closely monitored over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with passing mid and high cloud.
SW winds will become gusty by late morning, then subside and
switch to the NW late. Another front pushes in late tonight, with
winds shifting to N.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 22 31 18 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 48 24 35 17 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 54 25 36 14 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 51 18 31 13 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 44 18 29 12 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 41 19 27 14 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 51 23 33 16 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 45 19 28 15 / 0 0 10 0
F10 54 24 33 16 / 0 0 10 0
HHW 51 27 43 20 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30

FXUS64 KTSA 181700
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Temperatures warm into the 40s and lower 50s this afternoon,
though gusty winds still make it feel chilly.

- Another cold front arrives this evening and tonight, bringing
colder conditions for Monday.

- Low rain chances arrive to SE OK and W-Central AR Wednesday. A
pattern change may bring more active weather beginning next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

After a cold start this morning with many locations in the single
digits to low teens, southwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine
will allow temperatures to rebound into the 40s to lower 50s by
this afternoon. Winds will become more gusty during the afternoon
hours, still making it feel rather chilly out there for most of
the day. Another cold front arrives this evening, bringing a
return to northerly winds and temperatures falling back into the
teens to lower 20s overnight tonight, while wind chill values drop
back into the single digits across the northern part of the
forecast area. The frontal passage will remain dry through
tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Another cold and blustery day is in store for Monday following the
passage of the cold front. Temperatures will struggle to get above
freezing during the day Monday thanks to increasing cloud cover
and continued cold air advection associated with breezy northerly
winds. More sunshine across the south should allow temperatures to
rise into the lower 40s. Wind chill values will generally range
form the teens to low 20s(north) to mid 30s(south). A lobe of mid
level vorticity will track around the western periphery of the
large scale trough and track through northern and eastern Oklahoma
through the day Monday. This will lead to the increasing cloud
cover over the region, along with a chance at seeing some flurries
through the afternoon hours, generally north of I-40. Low level
dry air will likely limit how much reaches the ground, and thus no
accumulation is expected.

Another cold night is on tap under surface high pressure Monday
night before a warming trend kicks in Tuesday into Wednesday as
southerly winds return. A return to near or above normal temps is
in the forecast through mid week before another front arrives on
Wednesday. By this time, a plume of tropical moisture is expected
to lift north into parts of southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. Therefore, more widespread coverage of showers is
progged to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary during
the day Wednesday, mainly across far southeast Oklahoma, possibly
into west central Arkansas. Amounts still seem fairly light, with
generally less than a quarter inch forecast through Wednesday
evening. Temperatures don't appear to be quite as cold with this
front as the bulk of the cold air stays bottled up to the north
and east of the local region.

Signs continue to point to a bit of a pattern change heading into
next weekend, though significant differences and model changes are
still prevalent at this range. The upper level flow looks to
become less amplified as the western ridge breaks down and more
zonal flow aloft develops. This combined with a continued push of
cold fronts through the area could lead to some chances for wintry precipitation sometime next weekend. Timing of various systems
along with the strength and location of the push of Arctic air
remains in limbo. We will continue to keep an eye on the details
as these differences come into more agreement. Nevertheless, next
weekend bares watching for potential winter impacts and possibly
a more significant cold snap than has been the case for the last
couple of weeks.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with existing mid cloud in
NW AR shifting to the southeast this afternoon and another increase
in mid/high cloud overnight into tomorrow morning areawide. A few
hour period of gusty west to southwest winds will exist this
afternoon at all sites, dropping off this evening. Winds will
increase in speed and shift to a northerly direction in the predawn
hours tomorrow morning behind the cold front. Will not include any
gusts at this time, but some chance for isolated gusts up to
20 kts exists mainly during the latter couple of hours of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 23 31 19 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 47 24 34 18 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 52 25 35 14 / 0 0 10 0
BVO 49 19 31 14 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 42 19 27 13 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 39 19 28 15 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 49 23 30 16 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 43 18 29 17 / 0 0 0 0
F10 52 24 32 16 / 0 0 10 0
HHW 51 28 44 21 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22

FXUS64 KTSA 182333
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Temperatures warm into the 40s and lower 50s this afternoon,
though gusty winds still make it feel chilly.

- Another cold front arrives this evening and tonight, bringing
colder conditions for Monday.

- Low rain chances arrive to SE OK and W-Central AR Wednesday. A
pattern change may bring more active weather beginning next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

After a cold start this morning with many locations in the single
digits to low teens, southwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine
will allow temperatures to rebound into the 40s to lower 50s by
this afternoon. Winds will become more gusty during the afternoon
hours, still making it feel rather chilly out there for most of
the day. Another cold front arrives this evening, bringing a
return to northerly winds and temperatures falling back into the
teens to lower 20s overnight tonight, while wind chill values drop
back into the single digits across the northern part of the
forecast area. The frontal passage will remain dry through
tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Another cold and blustery day is in store for Monday following the
passage of the cold front. Temperatures will struggle to get above
freezing during the day Monday thanks to increasing cloud cover
and continued cold air advection associated with breezy northerly
winds. More sunshine across the south should allow temperatures to
rise into the lower 40s. Wind chill values will generally range
form the teens to low 20s(north) to mid 30s(south). A lobe of mid
level vorticity will track around the western periphery of the
large scale trough and track through northern and eastern Oklahoma
through the day Monday. This will lead to the increasing cloud
cover over the region, along with a chance at seeing some flurries
through the afternoon hours, generally north of I-40. Low level
dry air will likely limit how much reaches the ground, and thus no
accumulation is expected.

Another cold night is on tap under surface high pressure Monday
night before a warming trend kicks in Tuesday into Wednesday as
southerly winds return. A return to near or above normal temps is
in the forecast through mid week before another front arrives on
Wednesday. By this time, a plume of tropical moisture is expected
to lift north into parts of southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. Therefore, more widespread coverage of showers is
progged to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary during
the day Wednesday, mainly across far southeast Oklahoma, possibly
into west central Arkansas. Amounts still seem fairly light, with
generally less than a quarter inch forecast through Wednesday
evening. Temperatures don't appear to be quite as cold with this
front as the bulk of the cold air stays bottled up to the north
and east of the local region.

Signs continue to point to a bit of a pattern change heading into
next weekend, though significant differences and model changes are
still prevalent at this range. The upper level flow looks to
become less amplified as the western ridge breaks down and more
zonal flow aloft develops. This combined with a continued push of
cold fronts through the area could lead to some chances for wintry precipitation sometime next weekend. Timing of various systems
along with the strength and location of the push of Arctic air
remains in limbo. We will continue to keep an eye on the details
as these differences come into more agreement. Nevertheless, next
weekend bares watching for potential winter impacts and possibly
a more significant cold snap than has been the case for the last
couple of weeks.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Considerable mid level cloud cover will move across the area late
tonight through much of the day Monday, and north winds will also
gust to near 20 knots at times late tonight into Monday following
the passage of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 23 31 19 50 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 24 35 18 52 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 25 37 14 53 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 19 31 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 19 30 13 48 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 19 28 15 47 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 23 31 16 50 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 18 29 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
F10 24 32 16 51 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 28 44 21 50 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05

FXUS64 KTSA 190450
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1050 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Much colder today with wind chills predominantly in the teens
and 20s through the day. Low chance of flurries this morning
and afternoon.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive Wednesday, particularly across
SE OK and W AR. Rain totals remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating ice and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A cold front will continue to progress through the forecast area
overnight, setting the stage for another cold day Monday. While
not overly strong, breezy north winds will hold wind chills in the
teens this morning, locally in the single digits across far NE OK
and NW AR. Continued CAA and cloud cover will likely result in
high temperatures near or below freezing across much of NE OK and
NW AR. The persistent northern breeze will keep apparent
temperatures even lower for most of the day... likely in the upper
teens and 20s. Cloud cover will not be as dense across SE OK, and
temperatures will likely be warmer here, up to the lower 40s near
the Red River.

A subtle wave will pass overhead during the morning and afternoon
hours, potentially resulting in some flurries or light snow
showers across NE OK and NW AR. Any precip will need to overcome
low level dry air, which casts doubt on how much can actually
reach the ground. Even if so, amounts greater than a trace are
unlikely, and winter impacts are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Skies will gradually clear Monday evening and overnight as the
aforementioned system exits the region. Post-frontal high pressure
will meander south through the night, becoming increasingly
centered south and east of the CWA by Tuesday morning. A period
of effective radiational cooling is expected Monday night before
southwest winds redevelop late overnight as the high pressure
system exits. This results in low temperatures predominantly in
the teens. Southwest winds increase to 10-20 mph during the day
Tuesday as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the next storm
system.

The southerly flow will eventually transport moisture northward
into the FA Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. As this occurs,
an upper level wave rotating through the upper midwest will send
another cold front southward. Increasing ascent will result in the
development of light rain ahead of the front Wednesday morning
and afternoon, particularly across SE OK and W-Central AR. Precip
chances decrease from north to south by Wednesday night. While a
few spots could see up to a quarter inch, overall QPF is still on
the lower side with this system, and most locations will probably
see less than a tenth of an inch. Another front follows with high
pressure moving into the area on Thursday.

There is increasing consensus in a pattern change as we move into
the end of the week. The persistent western ridge is forecast to
break down Thursday and Friday, permitting flow over the southern
plains to become increasingly zonal, then southwesterly.
Meanwhile, a lobe of very cold arctic air is forecast to eject
southward through the country and into the southern plains. As
these features come together, ensemble guidance depicts increasing
potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend,
including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating ice and
snow. Nothing is set in stone at this range, and there will be
plenty of changes over the coming days, but potentially
significant impacts are within the realm of possibility. Please
check for updates to the forecast this week as more information
becomes available and models converge on a particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Considerable mid level cloudiness will spread south over the area
before clearing from the north late Monday and Monday evening. North
winds will gust to near 20 knots at times late tonight and Monday
following the passage of a cold front, with the winds diminishing
late Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 24 31 19 51 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 24 35 17 53 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 26 37 16 53 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 19 31 13 51 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 19 29 11 49 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 19 28 14 48 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 24 32 17 51 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 19 29 17 48 / 0 10 0 0
F10 24 33 17 51 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 28 44 21 51 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

FXUS64 KTSA 191125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much colder today with wind chills predominantly in the teens
and 20s through the day. Low chance of flurries this morning
and afternoon.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive Wednesday, particularly across
SE OK and W AR. Rain totals remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating ice and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A cold front will continue to progress through the forecast area
overnight, setting the stage for another cold day Monday. While
not overly strong, breezy north winds will hold wind chills in the
teens this morning, locally in the single digits across far NE OK
and NW AR. Continued CAA and cloud cover will likely result in
high temperatures near or below freezing across much of NE OK and
NW AR. The persistent northern breeze will keep apparent
temperatures even lower for most of the day... likely in the upper
teens and 20s. Cloud cover will not be as dense across SE OK, and
temperatures will likely be warmer here, up to the lower 40s near
the Red River.

A subtle wave will pass overhead during the morning and afternoon
hours, potentially resulting in some flurries or light snow
showers across NE OK and NW AR. Any precip will need to overcome
low level dry air, which casts doubt on how much can actually
reach the ground. Even if so, amounts greater than a trace are
unlikely, and winter impacts are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Skies will gradually clear Monday evening and overnight as the
aforementioned system exits the region. Post-frontal high pressure
will meander south through the night, becoming increasingly
centered south and east of the CWA by Tuesday morning. A period
of effective radiational cooling is expected Monday night before
southwest winds redevelop late overnight as the high pressure
system exits. This results in low temperatures predominantly in
the teens. Southwest winds increase to 10-20 mph during the day
Tuesday as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the next storm
system.

The southerly flow will eventually transport moisture northward
into the FA Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. As this occurs,
an upper level wave rotating through the upper midwest will send
another cold front southward. Increasing ascent will result in the
development of light rain ahead of the front Wednesday morning
and afternoon, particularly across SE OK and W-Central AR. Precip
chances decrease from north to south by Wednesday night. While a
few spots could see up to a quarter inch, overall QPF is still on
the lower side with this system, and most locations will probably
see less than a tenth of an inch. Another front follows with high
pressure moving into the area on Thursday.

There is increasing consensus in a pattern change as we move into
the end of the week. The persistent western ridge is forecast to
break down Thursday and Friday, permitting flow over the southern
plains to become increasingly zonal, then southwesterly.
Meanwhile, a lobe of very cold arctic air is forecast to eject
southward through the country and into the southern plains. As
these features come together, ensemble guidance depicts increasing
potential for winter weather impacts Friday into this weekend,
including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating ice and
snow. Nothing is set in stone at this range, and there will be
plenty of changes over the coming days, but potentially
significant impacts are within the realm of possibility. Please
check for updates to the forecast this week as more information
becomes available and models converge on a particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

We'll see increasing mid cloud today, with cigs around 10kft
through the day. Some snow flurries may fall at times but should
not be impactful. Gusty north winds behind a cold front across E
OK will subside this afternoon. Skies will clear this evening and
winds will switch around to the south and will be light.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 31 19 51 33 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 35 17 53 34 / 10 0 0 30
MLC 37 16 53 38 / 10 0 0 30
BVO 31 13 51 25 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 29 11 49 33 / 10 0 0 20
BYV 28 14 48 33 / 10 0 0 20
MKO 32 17 51 35 / 10 0 0 20
MIO 29 17 48 31 / 10 0 0 10
F10 33 17 51 35 / 10 0 0 20
HHW 44 21 51 39 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30

FXUS64 KTSA 191732
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much colder today with wind chills predominantly in the teens
and 20s through the day. Low chance of flurries through the
afternoon.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive Wednesday, particularly across
SE OK and W AR. Rain totals remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating ice and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

ANother cold day with well below normal temps and wind chills in
the teens to 20s is unfolding across the region, especially north
of I-40. A weak mid level disturbance will continue to stream mid
level cloud cover over the northern half of the forecast area
through the daytime hours. This along with persistent cold air
advection from northerly winds will keep temperatures largely
steady for locations near and north of I-40 this afternoon. Highs
will struggle to rise above freezing in these locations. Along
with the clouds, isolated snow flurries could also be seen
through the afternoon across the north, but a very dry sub cloud
layer will likely evaporate most precipitation before reaching the
surface. Therefore, no accumulation or impacts are expected. More
sunshine across the south will allow temperatures to rise into the
40s. Winds gradually die off later this afternoon and evening,
giving way to another cold night with lows in the teens to lower
20s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The surface high shifts southeast Tuesday morning and a couple of
fairly nice days are in store through the middle part of the week.
Widespread sunshine and southerly winds return to the Southern
Plains on Tuesday. The response will be warming temperatures back
to near or above normal both Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the
next system. The next cold front will move through the area during
the day Wednesday and interact with a plume of tropical moisture
streaming northward across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. This should produce enough moisture ahead of the
boundary to generate some shower activity Wednesday across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Any amounts look to
remain light, generally less than a quarter of an inch in most
locations. Thursday should be another nice day with temperatures
near normal and dry weather expected.

Big changes are in store for Friday into the weekend as we keep
our eye on the potential for winter weather impacts and bitterly
cold temperatures across the region. A strong cold front is
progged to move through the area on Friday, bringing rapidly falling temperatures and strong northerly winds to the area. At the same
time a cut off mid level low is forecast to move into the
southwest CONUS with a switch to more westerly or southwesterly
flow aloft developing over the Southern Plains. This will allow
more mid level moisture to stream atop the Arctic air mass, and
with enough lift widespread winter precipitation can be expected
beginning during the day Friday and lasting into Saturday. Many
uncertainties still exist, with the main one being how well the
cut off low will be absorbed into the upper level flow and its
track across the region. If the low can get fully absorbed and
track through the Southern Plains into Saturday, this would force
greater ascent over the region and allow for some heavier bands of precipitation to occur. While the alternative is the low stays
relatively cut off and weaker forcing over the area only allows
for lighter precipitation and less in the way of snow amounts over
much of Oklahoma. The evolution of this low will be the main
player in the forecast over the coming days as more details
emerge. Nevertheless, expect at least bitterly cold temperatures
for a few days with wind chill values likely below zero at times
and widespread single digit temperatures. Greater icing potential
appears to stay confined to southeast Oklahoma where the deeper
cold air will be slower to arrive, but as always, things can shift
as it gets closer.

Western CONUS ridging looks to build in again toward the beginning
of next week, letting temperatures recover somewhat, though any
snowpack could limit the warmup where greater snowfall can occur.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with mid level cloud
deck currently spread across the NE OK and W AR terminals decreasing
in coverage toward the overnight hours. A few flurries should be
expected beneath the mid cloud deck but the potential for category
impacts is near zero given current observations. A downward trend in
northerly wind speeds and gusts is also expected from north to south
across the region, with RVS and MLC the only sites with remaining
gusts at the beginning of the period. Winds will shift to a south to
southwest direction by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 30 21 50 32 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 36 19 53 35 / 10 0 0 30
MLC 39 19 52 38 / 10 0 0 40
BVO 29 16 51 26 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 31 16 48 33 / 10 0 0 30
BYV 26 17 49 33 / 10 0 0 20
MKO 31 19 51 35 / 10 0 0 30
MIO 26 18 48 31 / 10 0 0 10
F10 32 20 51 36 / 10 0 0 20
HHW 46 24 53 39 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22

FXUS64 KTSA 192321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much colder today with wind chills predominantly in the teens
and 20s through the day. Low chance of flurries through the
afternoon.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive Wednesday, particularly across
SE OK and W AR. Rain totals remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating ice and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

ANother cold day with well below normal temps and wind chills in
the teens to 20s is unfolding across the region, especially north
of I-40. A weak mid level disturbance will continue to stream mid
level cloud cover over the northern half of the forecast area
through the daytime hours. This along with persistent cold air
advection from northerly winds will keep temperatures largely
steady for locations near and north of I-40 this afternoon. Highs
will struggle to rise above freezing in these locations. Along
with the clouds, isolated snow flurries could also be seen
through the afternoon across the north, but a very dry sub cloud
layer will likely evaporate most precipitation before reaching the
surface. Therefore, no accumulation or impacts are expected. More
sunshine across the south will allow temperatures to rise into the
40s. Winds gradually die off later this afternoon and evening,
giving way to another cold night with lows in the teens to lower
20s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The surface high shifts southeast Tuesday morning and a couple of
fairly nice days are in store through the middle part of the week.
Widespread sunshine and southerly winds return to the Southern
Plains on Tuesday. The response will be warming temperatures back
to near or above normal both Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the
next system. The next cold front will move through the area during
the day Wednesday and interact with a plume of tropical moisture
streaming northward across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. This should produce enough moisture ahead of the
boundary to generate some shower activity Wednesday across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Any amounts look to
remain light, generally less than a quarter of an inch in most
locations. Thursday should be another nice day with temperatures
near normal and dry weather expected.

Big changes are in store for Friday into the weekend as we keep
our eye on the potential for winter weather impacts and bitterly
cold temperatures across the region. A strong cold front is
progged to move through the area on Friday, bringing rapidly falling temperatures and strong northerly winds to the area. At the same
time a cut off mid level low is forecast to move into the
southwest CONUS with a switch to more westerly or southwesterly
flow aloft developing over the Southern Plains. This will allow
more mid level moisture to stream atop the Arctic air mass, and
with enough lift widespread winter precipitation can be expected
beginning during the day Friday and lasting into Saturday. Many
uncertainties still exist, with the main one being how well the
cut off low will be absorbed into the upper level flow and its
track across the region. If the low can get fully absorbed and
track through the Southern Plains into Saturday, this would force
greater ascent over the region and allow for some heavier bands of precipitation to occur. While the alternative is the low stays
relatively cut off and weaker forcing over the area only allows
for lighter precipitation and less in the way of snow amounts over
much of Oklahoma. The evolution of this low will be the main
player in the forecast over the coming days as more details
emerge. Nevertheless, expect at least bitterly cold temperatures
for a few days with wind chill values likely below zero at times
and widespread single digit temperatures. Greater icing potential
appears to stay confined to southeast Oklahoma where the deeper
cold air will be slower to arrive, but as always, things can shift
as it gets closer.

Western CONUS ridging looks to build in again toward the beginning
of next week, letting temperatures recover somewhat, though any
snowpack could limit the warmup where greater snowfall can occur.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period for all
sites. Mid and high level clouds will gradually exit the area
early tonight with calming winds. By late Tuesday morning, winds
increase out of the southwest between 5 and 15 kts with mostly
clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 21 50 32 50 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 19 53 35 57 / 0 0 30 20
MLC 19 52 38 55 / 0 0 40 20
BVO 16 51 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 16 48 33 52 / 0 0 30 10
BYV 17 49 33 50 / 0 0 20 10
MKO 19 51 35 53 / 0 0 30 10
MIO 18 48 31 49 / 0 0 10 0
F10 20 51 36 54 / 0 0 20 10
HHW 24 53 39 56 / 0 0 50 50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...43

FXUS64 KTSA 200520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much warmer Tuesday with increasing south winds raising fire
weather concerns across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain
totals will remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

South winds will be on the increase during the day Tuesday
resulting in a return to much warmer temperatures. This will also
raise fire weather concerns by afternoon mainly across northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Afternoon high temperatures
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A weak cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Increasing moisture ahead of this front will result in
scattered showers developing from southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas. Precipitation looks to remain all liquid as
temperatures likely hold steady or slowly rise after a quick drop
off Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning
will remain light, generally under one quarter inch.

All attention remains focused on the winter storm system that will
likely affect the area Friday and Saturday. Bitterly cold air will
move south into the area late Thursday night and Friday morning,
setting the stage for widespread wintry precipitation. While some
light precipitation may fall during the day Friday, the more
significant precipitation looks to hold off until Friday night and
Saturday. At this time, it appears much of the area will see
mostly snow, although some wintry mix will be possible initially
south of Interstate 40 before a changeover to snow occurs. Across
far southeast Oklahoma, a more prolonged period of freezing rain
and/or sleet will be possible, with a full changeover to snow
perhaps not occurring until during the day Saturday. Temperatures
will be bitterly cold, with many places remaining in the teens
during the day Saturday.

While it remains too early to focus on specific amounts of ice and
snow, the consensus is for the greatest QPF to fall across the
southern half of the forecast area, with lesser amounts to the
north. Lesser may be relative in this case, as a significant
number of models and ensembles show QPF values over one half inch
across the entire forecast area, and snow ratios will be higher
than the usual 10:1. There is a subset of models though that show
much lower amounts in the northern part of the forecast area. For
now, stayed fairly conservative with snow amounts since we are
still 4+ days out. Amounts will be refined in the coming days as
confidence increases.

Skies will clear Sunday into early next week, with temperatures
highly uncertain as they will be fully dependent on the amount of
snow cover that exists at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all
sites. Light winds persist through the overnight period as high
pressure moves through the region. By late morning and afternoon, south-southwest winds will increase to 10-20 kts, especially across
NE OK and NW AR. Skies remain mostly clear for much of the period,
though low clouds will attempt to move into SE OK late in the
period. LLWS, gusting to 40 kts, develops areawide by late evening
through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 31 20 50 34 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 36 19 52 35 / 10 0 0 40
MLC 39 19 52 40 / 10 0 0 30
BVO 31 17 50 29 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 31 15 47 35 / 10 0 0 30
BYV 27 17 48 33 / 10 0 0 20
MKO 31 19 50 36 / 10 0 0 20
MIO 28 18 47 31 / 10 0 0 10
F10 32 19 50 37 / 10 0 0 20
HHW 46 23 53 39 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43

FXUS64 KTSA 201131
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Much warmer today with increasing south winds raising fire
weather concerns across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive late tonight into Wednesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain
totals will remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

South winds will be on the increase during the day Tuesday
resulting in a return to much warmer temperatures. This will also
raise fire weather concerns by afternoon mainly across northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Afternoon high temperatures
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A weak cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Increasing moisture ahead of this front will result in
scattered showers developing from southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas. Precipitation looks to remain all liquid as
temperatures likely hold steady or slowly rise after a quick drop
off Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning
will remain light, generally under one quarter inch.

All attention remains focused on the winter storm system that will
likely affect the area Friday and Saturday. Bitterly cold air will
move south into the area late Thursday night and Friday morning,
setting the stage for widespread wintry precipitation. While some
light precipitation may fall during the day Friday, the more
significant precipitation looks to hold off until Friday night and
Saturday. At this time, it appears much of the area will see
mostly snow, although some wintry mix will be possible initially
south of Interstate 40 before a changeover to snow occurs. Across
far southeast Oklahoma, a more prolonged period of freezing rain
and/or sleet will be possible, with a full changeover to snow
perhaps not occurring until during the day Saturday. Temperatures
will be bitterly cold, with many places remaining in the teens
during the day Saturday.

While it remains too early to focus on specific amounts of ice and
snow, the consensus is for the greatest QPF to fall across the
southern half of the forecast area, with lesser amounts to the
north. Lesser may be relative in this case, as a significant
number of models and ensembles show QPF values over one half inch
across the entire forecast area, and snow ratios will be higher
than the usual 10:1. There is a subset of models though that show
much lower amounts in the northern part of the forecast area. For
now, stayed fairly conservative with snow amounts since we are
still 4+ days out. Amounts will be refined in the coming days as
confidence increases.

Skies will clear Sunday into early next week, with temperatures
highly uncertain as they will be fully dependent on the amount of
snow cover that exists at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast. Winds
will turn around to the south today, with gusts 15 to 20 kts
across E OK this afternoon. Winds subside this evening but a
strong SWrly LLJ off the deck will yield LLWS conditions from
mid-evening onward. Lower level moisture return ahead of a front
will result in a deck of low-end VFR 5k ft cigs spreading from SE
OK into W AR tonight. The latest short-term data suggests that
the best chance for showers in the warm advection regime will be
at KFSM, so have inserted a prob30 aft 06Z to cover.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 34 52 25 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 52 35 55 29 / 0 40 30 0
MLC 52 40 57 28 / 0 30 20 0
BVO 50 29 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 47 35 52 23 / 0 30 20 0
BYV 48 33 51 25 / 0 20 20 0
MKO 50 36 54 26 / 0 20 10 0
MIO 47 31 50 24 / 0 10 0 0
F10 50 37 54 26 / 0 20 10 0
HHW 53 39 57 36 / 0 50 60 10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30

FXUS64 KTSA 201750
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Much warmer today with increasing south winds raising fire
weather concerns across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive late tonight into Wednesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain
totals will remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Southerly winds will increase and become gusty this afternoon
resulting in warmer temperatures returning across the area. Highs
will creep into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. The
increasing winds and warmer temperatures will also result in an
uptick in fire weather concerns, mainly across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas, as much of the area remains dry. Lows
tonight will be noticeably warmer as southerly flow continues with
lows just below freezing across the north while temps remains in
the upper 30s across the south.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move into the region late tonight into
Wednesday morning. A plume of tropical moisture will also advance
north overnight tonight across southeastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas ahead of the frontal boundary. This should result in
scattered shower activity developing ahead of the front from early
Wednesday morning through the early afternoon hours. Amounts
generally remain light at less than a quarter of an inch before
precipitation wraps up from northwest to southeast with the push
of drier air into the area behind the front. Temperatures behind
the front won't be overly cold, topping out near normal again on
Wednesday across much of the area. Another nice day is in store
on Thursday ahead of big changes coming for the last part of the
week into the weekend.

The main weather impact for this forecast period begins on Friday
as a strong Arctic front moves through the area Friday morning.
Bitterly cold air will spill south through the day Friday, along
with gusty northerly winds dropping wind chill values into the
single digits by Friday afternoon. Along with the cold
temperatures a storm system is progged to take shape to the west
and force precipitation overtop the cold airmass, with a prolonged
period of winter precip appearing more likely across a portion of
the forecast area through the weekend. The main feature that will
play a role in snow/ice amounts is the evolution of a subtropical
cutoff low that will be off the Southern California Coast at mid
week. How this feature phases with a polar jet shortwave trough
dropping south along the western edge of the parent eastern CONUS
trough will ultimately determine where and when the heaviest
precipitation occurs. This low will pump a continuous flow of
Pacific moisture over much of the Southern Plains from Friday
through Sunday. Model trends have been a little further south
with the subtropical jet and thus heavier snow and ice amounts
have shifted southward as well.

Precipitation is progged to start during the day Friday as the
mid level warm advection region intensifies over the Southern
Plains. Initial precip will likely be rain along the Red River to
a winter mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain further north into the
Arctic air. A transition to mostly all snow across the forecast
area, with the possible exception of far southeast Oklahoma, is
likely by Friday evening as the deeper cold air continues to
spill south. The system will be slow moving, so winter precip
could last from 36 to 48 hours in some locations with the higher
likelihood being south of I-40 at this time. Still, the prolonged
period of even lighter snow will add up throughout all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas by the time the storm ends on
Sunday. The potential for the heaviest snowfall is located
generally south of I-40 currently, where some heavier banding
could occur closer to the stronger lift associated with the
subtropical wave. We are looking at mostly snow impacts for the
region, though some icing and sleet potential at the onset of
precipitation could result in some ice impacts across the south
prior to snow arrival. Amounts will fluctuate in the coming days
as trends in the data get a better handle on the track of the
prevailing features.

Along with the precip, bitter cold temperatures will last for
several days through the weekend, with temperatures in the teens
and single digits from Friday evening, lasting into the day
Monday. Upper ridging looks to return to the area beginning next
week allowing for temperatures to warm, though any snowpack will
likely limit the warmup potential as it melts.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Mostly clear conditions are expected through this afternoon across
the CWA. This evening, increasing moisture will help spread MVFR to
low end VFR ceilings across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas
ahead of a cold front moving into the CWA early Wednesday morning.
Within this cloud cover, rain chances develop overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning, with KFSM having the greater potential. Will
continue with Prob30 groups for timing. Behind the front, conditions
are forecast to clear out through the morning hours with mostly
clear conditions returning at the end of the forecast period. Winds
through the period start out southerly and become west to northerly
behind the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 30 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 52 33 57 28 / 0 40 30 0
MLC 51 38 58 30 / 0 30 20 0
BVO 49 25 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 48 33 53 25 / 0 30 20 0
BYV 48 33 52 27 / 0 20 10 0
MKO 50 34 54 27 / 0 20 10 0
MIO 47 28 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 35 55 27 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 52 40 58 37 / 0 60 50 10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20

FXUS64 KTSA 202325
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Much warmer today with increasing south winds raising fire
weather concerns across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas.

- Low-medium rain chances arrive late tonight into Wednesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain
totals will remain light.

- Increasing potential for winter weather impacts Friday into
this weekend, including bitterly cold temperatures and
accumulating snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Southerly winds will increase and become gusty this afternoon
resulting in warmer temperatures returning across the area. Highs
will creep into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon. The
increasing winds and warmer temperatures will also result in an
uptick in fire weather concerns, mainly across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas, as much of the area remains dry. Lows
tonight will be noticeably warmer as southerly flow continues with
lows just below freezing across the north while temps remains in
the upper 30s across the south.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move into the region late tonight into
Wednesday morning. A plume of tropical moisture will also advance
north overnight tonight across southeastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas ahead of the frontal boundary. This should result in
scattered shower activity developing ahead of the front from early
Wednesday morning through the early afternoon hours. Amounts
generally remain light at less than a quarter of an inch before
precipitation wraps up from northwest to southeast with the push
of drier air into the area behind the front. Temperatures behind
the front won't be overly cold, topping out near normal again on
Wednesday across much of the area. Another nice day is in store
on Thursday ahead of big changes coming for the last part of the
week into the weekend.

The main weather impact for this forecast period begins on Friday
as a strong Arctic front moves through the area Friday morning.
Bitterly cold air will spill south through the day Friday, along
with gusty northerly winds dropping wind chill values into the
single digits by Friday afternoon. Along with the cold
temperatures a storm system is progged to take shape to the west
and force precipitation overtop the cold airmass, with a prolonged
period of winter precip appearing more likely across a portion of
the forecast area through the weekend. The main feature that will
play a role in snow/ice amounts is the evolution of a subtropical
cutoff low that will be off the Southern California Coast at mid
week. How this feature phases with a polar jet shortwave trough
dropping south along the western edge of the parent eastern CONUS
trough will ultimately determine where and when the heaviest
precipitation occurs. This low will pump a continuous flow of
Pacific moisture over much of the Southern Plains from Friday
through Sunday. Model trends have been a little further south
with the subtropical jet and thus heavier snow and ice amounts
have shifted southward as well.

Precipitation is progged to start during the day Friday as the
mid level warm advection region intensifies over the Southern
Plains. Initial precip will likely be rain along the Red River to
a winter mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain further north into the
Arctic air. A transition to mostly all snow across the forecast
area, with the possible exception of far southeast Oklahoma, is
likely by Friday evening as the deeper cold air continues to
spill south. The system will be slow moving, so winter precip
could last from 36 to 48 hours in some locations with the higher
likelihood being south of I-40 at this time. Still, the prolonged
period of even lighter snow will add up throughout all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas by the time the storm ends on
Sunday. The potential for the heaviest snowfall is located
generally south of I-40 currently, where some heavier banding
could occur closer to the stronger lift associated with the
subtropical wave. We are looking at mostly snow impacts for the
region, though some icing and sleet potential at the onset of
precipitation could result in some ice impacts across the south
prior to snow arrival. Amounts will fluctuate in the coming days
as trends in the data get a better handle on the track of the
prevailing features.

Along with the precip, bitter cold temperatures will last for
several days through the weekend, with temperatures in the teens
and single digits from Friday evening, lasting into the day
Monday. Upper ridging looks to return to the area beginning next
week allowing for temperatures to warm, though any snowpack will
likely limit the warmup potential as it melts.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through early this evening. Low-
level moisture increases and spreads into SE OK and W-C AR late
this evening and overnight tonight. As a result, MVFR to low VFR
cigs are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front.
Additionally, light rain is forecast to develop from SE OK to NW
AR, with greatest precipitation potential of wet runways at KFSM.
Have maintained PROB30 groups for MVFR cigs and precipitation
chances. Precipitation and cloud cover quickly clear behind the
frontal boundary and VFR will prevail by mid-late morning. Winds
turn northerly behind the front Wednesday morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 30 52 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 57 28 53 / 40 30 0 10
MLC 38 58 30 54 / 30 20 0 10
BVO 25 51 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 33 53 25 51 / 30 20 0 10
BYV 33 52 27 47 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 34 54 27 51 / 20 10 0 10
MIO 28 50 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
F10 35 55 27 51 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 40 58 37 54 / 60 50 10 10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67

FXUS64 KTSA 210553
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1153 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Low-medium rain chances continue into Wednesday morning across
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Rain totals will
remain light.

- High impact winter storm expected late Friday through Saturday
night, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating
snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move southeast across the area late tonight
and Wednesday morning. Scattered showers are beginning to develop
across far eastern Oklahoma at this time, and will continue into
Wednesday morning from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
Rain amounts will remain on the light side...generally under one
quarter inch. Clearing skies during the day Wednesday will allow
afternoon temperatures to warm into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

After another relatively mild day Thursday, big changes are on the
way beginning late Thursday night. An arctic cold front will move
south across the area late Thursday night and Friday morning, with
strong and gusty north winds and falling temperatures in its wake.
Temperatures during the day Friday will fall through the teens and
20s, with some light precipitation developing as well, especially
across southeast Oklahoma where a wintry mix will be possible.
Light snow will be possible by Friday afternoon farther north, but
a dry low level airmass will likely result in little or no snow
accumulation during the day Friday.

Conditions will deteriorate Friday evening and overnight, with
wintry precipitation becoming more widespread and heavier with
time. Mainly snow is expected north of Interstate 40, with only a
slight chance of sleet mixed in, with greater potential for a
wintry mix south of Interstate 40. The best chance for a glaze of
ice will be across far southeast Oklahoma, with sleet more likely
between Interstate 40 and the far southeast part of the state.
Several inches of snow accumulation will be likely in some places
before daybreak Saturday.

This initial round of precipitation will continue into Saturday
morning, with the transition to all snow sagging slowly south with
time. A break in the intensity of the precipitation looks likely
late Saturday morning and afternoon before the main upper level
system approaches by Saturday evening increasing precipitation
intensities once again. By this time, snow should be the main
precipitation type in all locations. This second wave of heavier
snow will bring at least several inches of snow to most all areas
before it tapers off and ends early Sunday.

Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches will be
common, with locally higher amounts. Some places will likely
receive over a foot of snow, and cannot rule out at least isolated
totals over 15 inches, mainly between Interstates 44 and 40.

Skies will clear later Sunday, with cold temperatures persisting
well into next week as the snow slowly begins to melt. Overnight
low temperatures may dip well below zero in a few spots Sunday
night assuming skies are clear and winds are calm, and later
forecasts may need to trend overnight lows colder.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows low/mid-level stratus continuing to
advect into the area from the south. Intermittent VFR/MVFR
conditions should transition to mostly MVFR after midnight at most
terminals. The stratus seems to stick around through much of the
morning Wednesday. Light to moderate rain showers will be possible
through mid-morning ahead of an approaching cold front, highest
chances mainly confined to the AR terminals as well as KMLC. Once
the front is able to push through, sometime mid-late morning
Wednesday, skies will clear and VFR will prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period. Winds will turn northerly, with
occasional gusts up to 20 knots initially behind the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 30 53 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 57 28 54 / 50 40 0 0
MLC 38 57 28 55 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 25 52 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 33 53 21 52 / 40 10 0 0
BYV 33 51 24 48 / 30 10 0 0
MKO 34 55 25 52 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 28 50 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
F10 35 55 25 54 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 40 59 32 54 / 60 50 0 0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67

FXUS64 KTSA 211134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Low-medium rain chances continue this morning across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Rain totals will remain light.

- High impact winter storm expected late Friday through Saturday
night, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating
snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move southeast across the area late tonight
and Wednesday morning. Scattered showers are beginning to develop
across far eastern Oklahoma at this time, and will continue into
Wednesday morning from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
Rain amounts will remain on the light side...generally under one
quarter inch. Clearing skies during the day Wednesday will allow
afternoon temperatures to warm into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

After another relatively mild day Thursday, big changes are on the
way beginning late Thursday night. An arctic cold front will move
south across the area late Thursday night and Friday morning, with
strong and gusty north winds and falling temperatures in its wake.
Temperatures during the day Friday will fall through the teens and
20s, with some light precipitation developing as well, especially
across southeast Oklahoma where a wintry mix will be possible.
Light snow will be possible by Friday afternoon farther north, but
a dry low level airmass will likely result in little or no snow
accumulation during the day Friday.

Conditions will deteriorate Friday evening and overnight, with
wintry precipitation becoming more widespread and heavier with
time. Mainly snow is expected north of Interstate 40, with only a
slight chance of sleet mixed in, with greater potential for a
wintry mix south of Interstate 40. The best chance for a glaze of
ice will be across far southeast Oklahoma, with sleet more likely
between Interstate 40 and the far southeast part of the state.
Several inches of snow accumulation will be likely in some places
before daybreak Saturday.

This initial round of precipitation will continue into Saturday
morning, with the transition to all snow sagging slowly south with
time. A break in the intensity of the precipitation looks likely
late Saturday morning and afternoon before the main upper level
system approaches by Saturday evening increasing precipitation
intensities once again. By this time, snow should be the main
precipitation type in all locations. This second wave of heavier
snow will bring at least several inches of snow to most all areas
before it tapers off and ends early Sunday.

Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches will be
common, with locally higher amounts. Some places will likely
receive over a foot of snow, and cannot rule out at least isolated
totals over 15 inches, mainly between Interstates 44 and 40.

Skies will clear later Sunday, with cold temperatures persisting
well into next week as the snow slowly begins to melt. Overnight
low temperatures may dip well below zero in a few spots Sunday
night assuming skies are clear and winds are calm, and later
forecasts may need to trend overnight lows colder.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Showers and MVFR cigs will impact the W AR and SE OK TAF sites
ahead of a weak front, but should clear out by midday. The front
will clear skies out across NE OK over the next hour or so as
well. VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
forecast, with perhaps some increasing high cloud late.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 53 26 51 22 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 57 28 54 31 / 50 0 0 10
MLC 57 28 55 31 / 20 0 0 30
BVO 52 20 49 18 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 53 21 52 26 / 20 0 0 10
BYV 51 24 48 23 / 20 0 0 10
MKO 55 25 52 30 / 10 0 0 20
MIO 50 23 49 20 / 0 0 0 10
F10 55 25 54 29 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 59 32 54 36 / 50 0 0 40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30

FXUS64 KTSA 211707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1107 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Low-medium rain chances continue this morning across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Rain totals will remain light.

- High impact winter storm expected late Friday through Saturday
night, including bitterly cold temperatures and accumulating
snow and ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak cold front will move southeast across the area late tonight
and Wednesday morning. Scattered showers are beginning to develop
across far eastern Oklahoma at this time, and will continue into
Wednesday morning from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
Rain amounts will remain on the light side...generally under one
quarter inch. Clearing skies during the day Wednesday will allow
afternoon temperatures to warm into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

After another relatively mild day Thursday, big changes are on the
way beginning late Thursday night. An arctic cold front will move
south across the area late Thursday night and Friday morning, with
strong and gusty north winds and falling temperatures in its wake.
Temperatures during the day Friday will fall through the teens and
20s, with some light precipitation developing as well, especially
across southeast Oklahoma where a wintry mix will be possible.
Light snow will be possible by Friday afternoon farther north, but
a dry low level airmass will likely result in little or no snow
accumulation during the day Friday.

Conditions will deteriorate Friday evening and overnight, with
wintry precipitation becoming more widespread and heavier with
time. Mainly snow is expected north of Interstate 40, with only a
slight chance of sleet mixed in, with greater potential for a
wintry mix south of Interstate 40. The best chance for a glaze of
ice will be across far southeast Oklahoma, with sleet more likely
between Interstate 40 and the far southeast part of the state.
Several inches of snow accumulation will be likely in some places
before daybreak Saturday.

This initial round of precipitation will continue into Saturday
morning, with the transition to all snow sagging slowly south with
time. A break in the intensity of the precipitation looks likely
late Saturday morning and afternoon before the main upper level
system approaches by Saturday evening increasing precipitation
intensities once again. By this time, snow should be the main
precipitation type in all locations. This second wave of heavier
snow will bring at least several inches of snow to most all areas
before it tapers off and ends early Sunday.

Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches will be
common, with locally higher amounts. Some places will likely
receive over a foot of snow, and cannot rule out at least isolated
totals over 15 inches, mainly between Interstates 44 and 40.

Skies will clear later Sunday, with cold temperatures persisting
well into next week as the snow slowly begins to melt. Overnight
low temperatures may dip well below zero in a few spots Sunday
night assuming skies are clear and winds are calm, and later
forecasts may need to trend overnight lows colder.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Low clouds have developed across NW AR along and in advance of
the cold front which will move through the region over the next
few hours. A brief time for flight level impacts will persist
through early afternoon otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Low
confidence in any late night fog and or early day stratus across
SE OK into NW AR so forecast will not include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 52 26 51 27 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 56 28 53 33 / 50 0 0 10
MLC 56 29 55 33 / 20 0 0 20
BVO 51 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 52 24 52 24 / 20 0 0 10
BYV 51 25 48 24 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 54 27 52 31 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 49 24 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
F10 54 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 58 34 53 38 / 50 0 0 30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07

FXUS64 KTSA 211816
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected later Friday through Sunday
morning bringing climatologically extreme snow and freezing
rain totals to the entire forecast area.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Mostly clear skies will continue through the afternoon and overnight
hours with this mornings cold front quickly moving east. Mild
temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 50s, but
will cool to a little below normal tonight, mainly in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday will be another quiet day with highs in the 50s and
increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system. Attention then
turns to the major to potentially historic winter storm expected to
clobber the region Friday into Sunday. The large scale setup will
feature a near record breaking arctic high descending south this
weekend, with surface pressure as high as 1052 hPa. This very cold
and very dense airmass will sweep south through the Plains.
Meanwhile, a well positioned cut off low near southern California
will be in just the right spot to be incompletely absorbed into
the arctic trough. This will maximize the time the region will
spend under moist isentropic upglide as well as upper level lift
from the jet. The result will be a prolonged period of moderate to
heavy precipitation resulting in significant snow and ice.
Details on the timing and amounts are found below.

The initial arctic intrusion will slosh in rather than surge. A
light northerly pressure gradient will gradually increase north
winds early Friday morning, becoming stronger during the daytime
with gusts to 25-35 mph. Temperatures will fall below freezing near
and north of the I-44 corridor by daybreak, with subfreezing air
working south to roughly a line from McAlester to Fayetteville by
early afternoon. Some model guidance produces some light frontal
precip during this timeframe. This would be rain for southeast OK
to the south of the previously mentioned demarcation line. North
of there, it could be a mixture of light snow, sleet, or freezing
rain. Amounts would be minimal, but some minor impacts can't be
ruled out by late morning north of I-40 and early afternoon south
of I-40. Still, the most likely scenario is for impacts to begin
during the afternoon to early evening hours. It is also worth
mentioning that if model guidance is incorrect there could be
shifts in the precipitation types. That applies to the entire
storm system.

By Friday evening cold air will surge south more quickly, with the
entire forecast area now below freezing. The coldest air will be
in northeast OK where temps will be in the teens by this point.
Upper level lift will increase with strong moist advection
occurring. This will result in moderate to heavy precipitation
spreading northward with time. Careful examination of model
soundings suggests all or mostly all snow north of roughly I-40,
with heavy sleet for areas to the south (including the Fort Smith
area). It would only be for portions of far southeast OK where
appreciable freezing rain may occur. Snow in the north and sleet
or freezing rain in the south will continue all night. For areas
seeing snow, winds gusting to 20-30 mph will result in blowing and
drifting snow. For areas seeing freezing rain, this combination
could result in power outages.

Temperatures will remain steady or slowly cool during the day
Saturday. High temperatures will be 9-17F for northeast OK and
northwest AR, with 18-28F for southeast OK and west-central AR.
The same layout of precipitation types will largely persist
through much of the day. But as the coldest air sinks into the
region Saturday evening, all areas should at least briefly change
over to snow. There was a definite trend on 12z guidance today
for a bit of a lull midday Saturday before an additional surge of
precipitation occurs into Sunday morning. Higher snow ratios at
this point would likely result in efficient accumulation. Storm
total amounts are still uncertain, but confidence is high they
will be significant. Much of northeast OK and northwest AR is
expected to see 8-12 inches. Even the "fizzle" scenario of 4-6
inches would still easily warrant a Winter Storm Warning. Sleet
accumulations could easily be a couple of inches for southeast OK
into west-central AR. Precipitation type is most uncertain near
the Red River. Depending on the exact precipitation type it could
be more sleet or more freezing rain, but either way, significant
ice is expected and it will greatly impact travel. These types of
storm totals will likely greatly impact area infrastructure for a
time, with difficult to impossible travel. Power outages are
certainly possible, but more especially within areas of freezing
rain. This is a storm to take seriously and prepare now.

We have spoken extensively of the precipitation issues, but extreme
cold is also expected. Wind chills will be below zero for a good
chunk of the area by Saturday afternoon, with values as low as -10F
or so (and 0 to 10F in southeast OK). These values will likely fall
below zero areawide on Sunday morning, with wind chill readings as
low as -15F in the north. Clear skies and light winds into Monday
morning may produce actual lows below zero. This type of setup
historically has resulted in lows even below -10F, and some mode
guidance hints at that for colder areas north of I-40. For now went
with -7F to +2F Monday morning. Accordingly, an Extreme Cold Watch
was issued for early Saturday into Monday morning. Several record
lows or min maximums (lowest high) are possible based on the current
forecast.

Temperatures will begin to warm Monday and Tuesday with light
southerly flow, and temperatures may break freezing Tuesday.
However, a secondary dry cold front will drop another cold airmass
into the area midweek. This combined with likely deep snow/ice cover
will probably keep roads a mess through much of the week. Be
prepared for a long period with limited mobility and potentially
limited power as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Low clouds have developed across NW AR along and in advance of
the cold front which will move through the region over the next
few hours. A brief time for flight level impacts will persist
through early afternoon otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Low
confidence in any late night fog and or early day stratus across
SE OK into NW AR so forecast will not include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 51 27 29 / 0 0 10 30
FSM 28 53 33 38 / 0 0 10 30
MLC 29 55 33 35 / 0 0 20 50
BVO 19 50 19 24 / 0 0 0 30
FYV 24 52 24 32 / 0 0 10 30
BYV 25 48 24 26 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 27 52 31 33 / 0 0 10 30
MIO 24 50 23 23 / 0 0 0 20
F10 27 53 30 32 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 34 53 38 43 / 0 0 30 70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07

FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected later Friday through Sunday
morning bringing climatologically extreme snow and freezing
rain totals to the entire forecast area.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Mostly clear skies will continue through the afternoon and overnight
hours with this mornings cold front quickly moving east. Mild
temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 50s, but
will cool to a little below normal tonight, mainly in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday will be another quiet day with highs in the 50s and
increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system. Attention then
turns to the major to potentially historic winter storm expected to
clobber the region Friday into Sunday. The large scale setup will
feature a near record breaking arctic high descending south this
weekend, with surface pressure as high as 1052 hPa. This very cold
and very dense airmass will sweep south through the Plains.
Meanwhile, a well positioned cut off low near southern California
will be in just the right spot to be incompletely absorbed into
the arctic trough. This will maximize the time the region will
spend under moist isentropic upglide as well as upper level lift
from the jet. The result will be a prolonged period of moderate to
heavy precipitation resulting in significant snow and ice.
Details on the timing and amounts are found below.

The initial arctic intrusion will slosh in rather than surge. A
light northerly pressure gradient will gradually increase north
winds early Friday morning, becoming stronger during the daytime
with gusts to 25-35 mph. Temperatures will fall below freezing near
and north of the I-44 corridor by daybreak, with subfreezing air
working south to roughly a line from McAlester to Fayetteville by
early afternoon. Some model guidance produces some light frontal
precip during this timeframe. This would be rain for southeast OK
to the south of the previously mentioned demarcation line. North
of there, it could be a mixture of light snow, sleet, or freezing
rain. Amounts would be minimal, but some minor impacts can't be
ruled out by late morning north of I-40 and early afternoon south
of I-40. Still, the most likely scenario is for impacts to begin
during the afternoon to early evening hours. It is also worth
mentioning that if model guidance is incorrect there could be
shifts in the precipitation types. That applies to the entire
storm system.

By Friday evening cold air will surge south more quickly, with the
entire forecast area now below freezing. The coldest air will be
in northeast OK where temps will be in the teens by this point.
Upper level lift will increase with strong moist advection
occurring. This will result in moderate to heavy precipitation
spreading northward with time. Careful examination of model
soundings suggests all or mostly all snow north of roughly I-40,
with heavy sleet for areas to the south (including the Fort Smith
area). It would only be for portions of far southeast OK where
appreciable freezing rain may occur. Snow in the north and sleet
or freezing rain in the south will continue all night. For areas
seeing snow, winds gusting to 20-30 mph will result in blowing and
drifting snow. For areas seeing freezing rain, this combination
could result in power outages.

Temperatures will remain steady or slowly cool during the day
Saturday. High temperatures will be 9-17F for northeast OK and
northwest AR, with 18-28F for southeast OK and west-central AR.
The same layout of precipitation types will largely persist
through much of the day. But as the coldest air sinks into the
region Saturday evening, all areas should at least briefly change
over to snow. There was a definite trend on 12z guidance today
for a bit of a lull midday Saturday before an additional surge of
precipitation occurs into Sunday morning. Higher snow ratios at
this point would likely result in efficient accumulation. Storm
total amounts are still uncertain, but confidence is high they
will be significant. Much of northeast OK and northwest AR is
expected to see 8-12 inches. Even the "fizzle" scenario of 4-6
inches would still easily warrant a Winter Storm Warning. Sleet
accumulations could easily be a couple of inches for southeast OK
into west-central AR. Precipitation type is most uncertain near
the Red River. Depending on the exact precipitation type it could
be more sleet or more freezing rain, but either way, significant
ice is expected and it will greatly impact travel. These types of
storm totals will likely greatly impact area infrastructure for a
time, with difficult to impossible travel. Power outages are
certainly possible, but more especially within areas of freezing
rain. This is a storm to take seriously and prepare now.

We have spoken extensively of the precipitation issues, but extreme
cold is also expected. Wind chills will be below zero for a good
chunk of the area by Saturday afternoon, with values as low as -10F
or so (and 0 to 10F in southeast OK). These values will likely fall
below zero areawide on Sunday morning, with wind chill readings as
low as -15F in the north. Clear skies and light winds into Monday
morning may produce actual lows below zero. This type of setup
historically has resulted in lows even below -10F, and some mode
guidance hints at that for colder areas north of I-40. For now went
with -7F to +2F Monday morning. Accordingly, an Extreme Cold Watch
was issued for early Saturday into Monday morning. Several record
lows or min maximums (lowest high) are possible based on the current
forecast.

Temperatures will begin to warm Monday and Tuesday with light
southerly flow, and temperatures may break freezing Tuesday.
However, a secondary dry cold front will drop another cold airmass
into the area midweek. This combined with likely deep snow/ice cover
will probably keep roads a mess through much of the week. Be
prepared for a long period with limited mobility and potentially
limited power as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Variable winds and scattered to broken high clouds are forecast
tonight into Thursday morning. During the morning hours Thursday,
winds are forecast to become more east/southeast through the end
of the TAF period. Thursday afternoon, few to scattered mid clouds
look to begin lifting into southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 51 27 29 / 0 0 10 30
FSM 28 53 33 38 / 0 0 10 30
MLC 29 55 33 35 / 0 0 20 50
BVO 19 50 19 24 / 0 0 0 30
FYV 24 52 24 32 / 0 0 10 30
BYV 25 48 24 26 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 27 52 31 33 / 0 0 10 30
MIO 24 50 23 23 / 0 0 0 20
F10 27 53 30 32 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 34 53 38 43 / 0 0 30 70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20

FXUS64 KTSA 220510
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday
morning, bringing climatologically extreme snow and freezing
rain totals to the entire forecast area.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Tranquil weather will proceed overnight tonight and through the
daytime Thursday, with no impacts due to weather expected. High
clouds will begin to increase after midnight tonight, becoming
broken or overcast by daybreak Thursday. Winds will remain
generally light through the period despite a very weak frontal
boundary moving into northeast OK and far northwest AR after
midnight tonight. The front will not amount to much of anything
and will wash-out by mid-morning. Winds will eventually veer from
the northeast to the east or east-southeast around midday midday
as surface high pressure shifts east of the area and becomes
elongated. As for temperatures...Thursday will be the warmest day
for at least a full week, perhaps longer, with afternoon high
temperatures reaching the low-mid 50s. Be sure to enjoy the warmth
outside while it lasts.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Forecast remains on track for a robust and high-impact winter
storm to affect eastern OK and western AR beginning late Thursday
night through Sunday afternoon. It is worth noting that this
forecast will likely continue to be adjusted over the next couple
of days as newer model data comes in. Precipitation totals and
timing will change.

A strong Arctic cold front will move across the region late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures are forecast to
steadily fall through the daytime Friday, with temperatures
falling below freezing before noon for most areas north of I-40
and elsewhere by sunset. Winds behind the front will remain gusty
through the daytime Friday, with gusts up to 35 mph. In turn, this
will make temperatures feel even colder as wind chill values
hover in the single digits and teens going into Friday night. The
frontal boundary will initially bring in some very dry air near
the surface. Models and ensembles still clash with regards to
precipitation onset timing, partly due to the dry, sub-cloud
layer. With that said, there may be a few locations, especially
south of I-40, where full saturation to the surface occurs Friday morning/afternoon and light precipitation (with minor
accumulations of rain, freezing rain, and sleet) is possible.

There is much better agreement in models that indicate a couple
of upper-level waves of heavier and more impactful precipitation,
with the first wave arriving late Friday afternoon and into the
evening as low-level moisture surges into the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough moving onshore from Baja California.
Though there are still some differences in model data, this first
wave should linger through late morning Saturday before exiting to
the east. A lull in heavy precipitation is expected thereafter,
with spotty and periodic light precipitation falling through the
afternoon Saturday. A second upper-level wave is anticipated to
impact and bring additional widespread heavy wintry precipitation
beginning Saturday evening and will continue through much of the
daytime Sunday before the entire storm system exits to the east.

Confidence is medium-high that precipitation north of I-40 will
fall mainly as snow through the entire event from start to finish.
However, forecast soundings from a few of the latest
deterministic forecast models show a warm nose in place between
I-40 and Highway 412, leaving a low chance of sleet mixing in with
snow as far north as Highway 412 through the daytime Saturday.
Snowfall totals, which do include sleet amounts, likely will not
be impacted too much as the more dominate precipitation type
should be snow north of I-40. Still, half an inch of sleet will
still be possible. Precipitation types along and south of I-40
will be a lot more messy, with a more pronounced warm nose in
place most of this event. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will all
be probable at some point, especially across far southeast OK and closer
to the Red River. As far as total snow/sleet/ice amounts, current
thinking remains mostly the same as the previous forecast. In
general, 8 to 12 inches of snow (with some sleet mixed in),
locally higher, is still expected north of I-40 through Sunday
afternoon. South of I-40, a mixture of sleet and snow is expected
to total between 4 to 6 inches. Additionally, ice amounts near the
Red River have increased some, with totals to near half an inch
in Choctaw and Pushmataha counties possible. However, there is
very low confidence on the ice amounts at this time. It is
possible that much of this could fall as sleet instead of ice. The
Winter Storm Watch that is currently in effect for all of the CWA
will likely be upgraded to a warning tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be extremely and dangerously cold Friday
through the beginning part of next week, given snowfall amounts
and accumulations. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect from
midnight Saturday until noon Sunday. Daytime highs will be in the
single digits and teens Saturday and Sunday. The coldest period of
the long-term will be Sunday night into Monday morning when clouds
begin to clear and winds begin to die down. A deep snowpack will
essentially keep temperature well below than what forecast models
are suggesting. A gradual warm-up will occur Monday into Tuesday
when southerly winds return, with mostly dry weather into midweek.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Few high clouds this evening become scattered to broken high clouds
tonight and Thursday across the CWA. By Thursday evening, scattered
mid clouds are forecast to begin lifting into eastern Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas ahead of the approaching Arctic airmass. Winds
through the period start out variable and become more east/southeast
during the day Thursday. Late in the period, winds start to return
more north/northeast for parts of northeast Oklahoma. VFR conditions
should persist through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 53 25 25 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 28 54 31 38 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 29 57 32 38 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 21 51 18 22 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 25 54 24 31 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 25 48 24 26 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 27 53 30 34 / 0 0 0 20
MIO 25 51 21 22 / 0 0 0 10
F10 27 55 30 32 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 34 53 37 41 / 0 0 10 50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20

FXUS64 KTSA 221108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
508 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday
morning, bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet
totals to the entire forecast area.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Tranquil weather will proceed overnight tonight and through the
daytime Thursday, with no impacts due to weather expected. High
clouds will begin to increase after midnight tonight, becoming
broken or overcast by daybreak Thursday. Winds will remain
generally light through the period despite a very weak frontal
boundary moving into northeast OK and far northwest AR after
midnight tonight. The front will not amount to much of anything
and will wash-out by mid-morning. Winds will eventually veer from
the northeast to the east or east-southeast around midday midday
as surface high pressure shifts east of the area and becomes
elongated. As for temperatures...Thursday will be the warmest day
for at least a full week, perhaps longer, with afternoon high
temperatures reaching the low-mid 50s. Be sure to enjoy the warmth
outside while it lasts.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Forecast remains on track for a robust and high-impact winter
storm to affect eastern OK and western AR beginning late Thursday
night through Sunday afternoon. It is worth noting that this
forecast will likely continue to be adjusted over the next couple
of days as newer model data comes in. Precipitation totals and
timing will change.

A strong Arctic cold front will move across the region late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures are forecast to
steadily fall through the daytime Friday, with temperatures
falling below freezing before noon for most areas north of I-40
and elsewhere by sunset. Winds behind the front will remain gusty
through the daytime Friday, with gusts up to 35 mph. In turn, this
will make temperatures feel even colder as wind chill values
hover in the single digits and teens going into Friday night. The
frontal boundary will initially bring in some very dry air near
the surface. Models and ensembles still clash with regards to
precipitation onset timing, partly due to the dry, sub-cloud
layer. With that said, there may be a few locations, especially
south of I-40, where full saturation to the surface occurs Friday morning/afternoon and light precipitation (with minor
accumulations of rain, freezing rain, and sleet) is possible.

There is much better agreement in models that indicate a couple
of upper-level waves of heavier and more impactful precipitation,
with the first wave arriving late Friday afternoon and into the
evening as low-level moisture surges into the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough moving onshore from Baja California.
Though there are still some differences in model data, this first
wave should linger through late morning Saturday before exiting to
the east. A lull in heavy precipitation is expected thereafter,
with spotty and periodic light precipitation falling through the
afternoon Saturday. A second upper-level wave is anticipated to
impact and bring additional widespread heavy wintry precipitation
beginning Saturday evening and will continue through much of the
daytime Sunday before the entire storm system exits to the east.

Confidence is medium-high that precipitation north of I-40 will
fall mainly as snow through the entire event from start to finish.
However, forecast soundings from a few of the latest
deterministic forecast models show a warm nose in place between
I-40 and Highway 412, leaving a low chance of sleet mixing in with
snow as far north as Highway 412 through the daytime Saturday.
Snowfall totals, which do include sleet amounts, likely will not
be impacted too much as the more dominate precipitation type
should be snow north of I-40. Still, half an inch of sleet will
still be possible. Precipitation types along and south of I-40
will be a lot more messy, with a more pronounced warm nose in
place most of this event. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will all
be probable at some point, especially across far southeast OK and closer
to the Red River. As far as total snow/sleet/ice amounts, current
thinking remains mostly the same as the previous forecast. In
general, 8 to 12 inches of snow (with some sleet mixed in),
locally higher, is still expected north of I-40 through Sunday
afternoon. South of I-40, a mixture of sleet and snow is expected
to total between 4 to 6 inches. Additionally, ice amounts near the
Red River have increased some, with totals to near half an inch
in Choctaw and Pushmataha counties possible. However, there is
very low confidence on the ice amounts at this time. It is
possible that much of this could fall as sleet instead of ice. The
Winter Storm Watch that is currently in effect for all of the CWA
will likely be upgraded to a warning tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be extremely and dangerously cold Friday
through the beginning part of next week, given snowfall amounts
and accumulations. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect from
midnight Saturday until noon Sunday. Daytime highs will be in the
single digits and teens Saturday and Sunday. The coldest period of
the long-term will be Sunday night into Monday morning when clouds
begin to clear and winds begin to die down. A deep snowpack will
essentially keep temperature well below than what forecast models
are suggesting. A gradual warm-up will occur Monday into Tuesday
when southerly winds return, with mostly dry weather into midweek.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing high
cloud and light wind. The initial signs of moisture return ahead
of the big winter storm will show up as an increase in low-end VFR
cigs coming up from the south at KMLC tonight. Also, toward the
very end of the forecast just before daybreak Friday morning, the
Arctic cold front arrives at the NE OK sites, with NErly wind
gusts in excess of 20 kts possible.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 53 25 25 9 / 0 0 10 90
FSM 54 31 38 18 / 0 0 10 90
MLC 57 32 38 16 / 0 10 30 100
BVO 51 18 22 6 / 0 0 10 90
FYV 54 24 31 11 / 0 0 10 90
BYV 48 24 26 9 / 0 0 10 90
MKO 53 30 34 13 / 0 0 20 100
MIO 51 21 22 5 / 0 0 10 90
F10 55 30 32 11 / 0 10 20 100
HHW 53 37 41 21 / 0 10 50 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30

FXUS64 KTSA 221706
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1106 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing
climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire
forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible
at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mild conditions are expected today with high temperatures in the
50s. Cloud cover will increase and lower throughout the day in
advance of the next storm system. The leading edge of the arctic
airmass will move through this evening, with northerly flow
beginning in northeast OK. North winds will then gradually spread
south and strengthen during the overnight hours. Cold air will
initially be sluggish in its southward push, with subfreezing air
roughly making it to a line from Henryetta up through Fayetteville
by daybreak. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s near the KS
border to low 40s near the TX border at daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold air will increasing push into the area Friday, especially near
and north of Highway 412, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Further south, it
is unclear what kind of progress the cold air will make during the
day. The AIFS and NAM models are typically more reliable with cold
air, and they suggest temperatures remaining just above freezing to
the south of I-40 until the afternoon hours, with temperatures then
going below freezing areawide. We are within the window of CAM
guidance at this point. Much of which shows some light rain showers
in southeast OK from roughly noon to 3 PM. Any storm preparations or
travel should be completed by midday Friday across the area. For the
later afternoon hours, precipitation will increase across southeast
OK, with rain transitioning to either freezing rain or sleet,
depending on the exact cold air progression. Any wet roads will
freeze during this period. Precipitation will spread north to the
remainder of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Precipitation type will be mostly snow north of I-40, with mostly
sleet to the south. There will be variation in this generalization
in both time and location. Some freezing rain near the Red River may
occur, but is generally expected to remain below 0.2 inches. But
again, this depends on how quickly the cold air surges south.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will then continue overnight into
Saturday morning as moist isentropic upglide intersects lift from an
upper level jet. Exact totals remain uncertain given questions of
how far north sleet occurs, exact heavier precipitation axis, and so
on. But total snow will be multiple inches for most areas in the
north, with an inch or two of sleet in the south. There is
uncertainty during the day Saturday, but the majority of guidance
leans towards either a break or at least weaker precipitation rates
for a time. Given gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph, some blowing
and drifting of snow is likely. Temperatures will hover near 8-15 F
in the north during the daytime, and 15-25 F in the south.

The main trough axis will then swing through later Saturday into
Sunday, reinvigorating precipitation rates. With cooling upper
levels this will cause snow ratios to increase in the north, and
nudge the precipitation type towards snow with time in southern
areas. There is still a decent subset of guidance that keeps this
second surge weaker and further south, which would limit totals. The
majority of guidance, however, shows this second band as robust with
low density snow, meaning it will accumulate efficiently. Snow may
linger as long as early Sunday afternoon before totally shutting
off.

These factors together point to a widespread storm total of 6-12
inches of snow north of I-40. If some of the higher end guidance
were to develop (less likely) it is possible local accumulations
could be as high as 18-20 inches somewhere. Conversely, the low end
scenario (also less likely) would be 6-8 inches in the north.
Blowing and drifting of snow will make travel very difficult if not
outright impossible for a time. South of I-40, sleet accumulations
will be prolific, potentially up to 3-4 inches in spots. These types
of totals will cripple many area roads. Typically sleet takes a long
time to melt so impacts will linger for multiple days. A couple of
inches of snow may fall on top of the sleet near the end of the
storm. Additionally, some icing near the Red River could result in
localized power outages. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect to
cover these expected storm totals.

Very low wind chills will develop Friday evening in the north,
spreading to all areas Saturday. Wind chills will fall below zero
for at least a time in most locations. Actual high temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Lows are expected
to be well below zero Monday morning for many areas. The Extreme
Cold Watch was upgraded to a Warning to account for this danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week, with
highs climbing into the 30s but lows remaining below 20 each night.
This will refreeze and compact existing snow and sleet, keeping road
conditions treacherous into at least late week. There is a bit of a
signal in the ensemble guidance for a weak system near next Friday,
but no additional precipitation should occur after Sunday until at
least then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing high
cloud and light wind. The initial signs of moisture return ahead
of the big winter storm will show up as an increase in low-end VFR
cigs coming up from the south at KMLC tonight. Also, toward the
very end of the forecast just before daybreak Friday morning, the
Arctic cold front arrives at the NE OK sites, with NErly wind
gusts in excess of 20 kts possible.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 28 8 11 / 0 20 100 100
FSM 33 39 17 20 / 0 20 100 100
MLC 35 39 14 18 / 0 50 100 100
BVO 21 24 4 10 / 0 20 90 100
FYV 26 32 9 15 / 0 20 100 100
BYV 25 27 8 12 / 0 10 90 100
MKO 32 33 12 15 / 0 30 100 100
MIO 22 23 5 10 / 0 10 90 100
F10 32 32 9 14 / 0 40 100 100
HHW 40 42 19 22 / 10 70 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

FXUS64 KTSA 221739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing
climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire
forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible
at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mild conditions are expected today with high temperatures in the
50s. Cloud cover will increase and lower throughout the day in
advance of the next storm system. The leading edge of the arctic
airmass will move through this evening, with northerly flow
beginning in northeast OK. North winds will then gradually spread
south and strengthen during the overnight hours. Cold air will
initially be sluggish in its southward push, with subfreezing air
roughly making it to a line from Henryetta up through Fayetteville
by daybreak. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s near the KS
border to low 40s near the TX border at daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold air will increasing push into the area Friday, especially near
and north of Highway 412, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Further south, it
is unclear what kind of progress the cold air will make during the
day. The AIFS and NAM models are typically more reliable with cold
air, and they suggest temperatures remaining just above freezing to
the south of I-40 until the afternoon hours, with temperatures then
going below freezing areawide. We are within the window of CAM
guidance at this point. Much of which shows some light rain showers
in southeast OK from roughly noon to 3 PM. Any storm preparations or
travel should be completed by midday Friday across the area. For the
later afternoon hours, precipitation will increase across southeast
OK, with rain transitioning to either freezing rain or sleet,
depending on the exact cold air progression. Any wet roads will
freeze during this period. Precipitation will spread north to the
remainder of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Precipitation type will be mostly snow north of I-40, with mostly
sleet to the south. There will be variation in this generalization
in both time and location. Some freezing rain near the Red River may
occur, but is generally expected to remain below 0.2 inches. But
again, this depends on how quickly the cold air surges south.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will then continue overnight into
Saturday morning as moist isentropic upglide intersects lift from an
upper level jet. Exact totals remain uncertain given questions of
how far north sleet occurs, exact heavier precipitation axis, and so
on. But total snow will be multiple inches for most areas in the
north, with an inch or two of sleet in the south. There is
uncertainty during the day Saturday, but the majority of guidance
leans towards either a break or at least weaker precipitation rates
for a time. Given gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph, some blowing
and drifting of snow is likely. Temperatures will hover near 8-15 F
in the north during the daytime, and 15-25 F in the south.

The main trough axis will then swing through later Saturday into
Sunday, reinvigorating precipitation rates. With cooling upper
levels this will cause snow ratios to increase in the north, and
nudge the precipitation type towards snow with time in southern
areas. There is still a decent subset of guidance that keeps this
second surge weaker and further south, which would limit totals. The
majority of guidance, however, shows this second band as robust with
low density snow, meaning it will accumulate efficiently. Snow may
linger as long as early Sunday afternoon before totally shutting
off.

These factors together point to a widespread storm total of 6-12
inches of snow north of I-40. If some of the higher end guidance
were to develop (less likely) it is possible local accumulations
could be as high as 18-20 inches somewhere. Conversely, the low end
scenario (also less likely) would be 6-8 inches in the north.
Blowing and drifting of snow will make travel very difficult if not
outright impossible for a time. South of I-40, sleet accumulations
will be prolific, potentially up to 3-4 inches in spots. These types
of totals will cripple many area roads. Typically sleet takes a long
time to melt so impacts will linger for multiple days. A couple of
inches of snow may fall on top of the sleet near the end of the
storm. Additionally, some icing near the Red River could result in
localized power outages. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect to
cover these expected storm totals.

Very low wind chills will develop Friday evening in the north,
spreading to all areas Saturday. Wind chills will fall below zero
for at least a time in most locations. Actual high temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Lows are expected
to be well below zero Monday morning for many areas. The Extreme
Cold Watch was upgraded to a Warning to account for this danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week, with
highs climbing into the 30s but lows remaining below 20 each night.
This will refreeze and compact existing snow and sleet, keeping road
conditions treacherous into at least late week. There is a bit of a
signal in the ensemble guidance for a weak system near next Friday,
but no additional precipitation should occur after Sunday until at
least then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of
this forecast period. Low clouds will begin to stream north and
westward overnight and may pass or impact KMLC with lower chances
further north and east. Cold front moves into NE OK after midnight
and makes slow but steady progress southward with winds becoming
gusty from the N after the passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 26 28 8 / 0 0 20 100
FSM 54 33 39 17 / 0 0 20 100
MLC 56 35 39 14 / 0 0 50 100
BVO 52 21 24 4 / 0 0 20 90
FYV 53 26 32 9 / 0 0 20 100
BYV 49 25 27 8 / 0 0 10 90
MKO 54 32 33 12 / 0 0 30 100
MIO 52 22 23 5 / 0 0 10 90
F10 56 32 32 9 / 0 0 40 100
HHW 54 40 42 19 / 0 10 70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07

FXUS64 KTSA 222348
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing
climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire
forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible
at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mild conditions are expected today with high temperatures in the
50s. Cloud cover will increase and lower throughout the day in
advance of the next storm system. The leading edge of the arctic
airmass will move through this evening, with northerly flow
beginning in northeast OK. North winds will then gradually spread
south and strengthen during the overnight hours. Cold air will
initially be sluggish in its southward push, with subfreezing air
roughly making it to a line from Henryetta up through Fayetteville
by daybreak. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s near the KS
border to low 40s near the TX border at daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold air will increasing push into the area Friday, especially near
and north of Highway 412, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Further south, it
is unclear what kind of progress the cold air will make during the
day. The AIFS and NAM models are typically more reliable with cold
air, and they suggest temperatures remaining just above freezing to
the south of I-40 until the afternoon hours, with temperatures then
going below freezing areawide. We are within the window of CAM
guidance at this point. Much of which shows some light rain showers
in southeast OK from roughly noon to 3 PM. Any storm preparations or
travel should be completed by midday Friday across the area. For the
later afternoon hours, precipitation will increase across southeast
OK, with rain transitioning to either freezing rain or sleet,
depending on the exact cold air progression. Any wet roads will
freeze during this period. Precipitation will spread north to the
remainder of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Precipitation type will be mostly snow north of I-40, with mostly
sleet to the south. There will be variation in this generalization
in both time and location. Some freezing rain near the Red River may
occur, but is generally expected to remain below 0.2 inches. But
again, this depends on how quickly the cold air surges south.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will then continue overnight into
Saturday morning as moist isentropic upglide intersects lift from an
upper level jet. Exact totals remain uncertain given questions of
how far north sleet occurs, exact heavier precipitation axis, and so
on. But total snow will be multiple inches for most areas in the
north, with an inch or two of sleet in the south. There is
uncertainty during the day Saturday, but the majority of guidance
leans towards either a break or at least weaker precipitation rates
for a time. Given gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph, some blowing
and drifting of snow is likely. Temperatures will hover near 8-15 F
in the north during the daytime, and 15-25 F in the south.

The main trough axis will then swing through later Saturday into
Sunday, reinvigorating precipitation rates. With cooling upper
levels this will cause snow ratios to increase in the north, and
nudge the precipitation type towards snow with time in southern
areas. There is still a decent subset of guidance that keeps this
second surge weaker and further south, which would limit totals. The
majority of guidance, however, shows this second band as robust with
low density snow, meaning it will accumulate efficiently. Snow may
linger as long as early Sunday afternoon before totally shutting
off.

These factors together point to a widespread storm total of 6-12
inches of snow north of I-40. If some of the higher end guidance
were to develop (less likely) it is possible local accumulations
could be as high as 18-20 inches somewhere. Conversely, the low end
scenario (also less likely) would be 6-8 inches in the north.
Blowing and drifting of snow will make travel very difficult if not
outright impossible for a time. South of I-40, sleet accumulations
will be prolific, potentially up to 3-4 inches in spots. These types
of totals will cripple many area roads. Typically sleet takes a long
time to melt so impacts will linger for multiple days. A couple of
inches of snow may fall on top of the sleet near the end of the
storm. Additionally, some icing near the Red River could result in
localized power outages. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect to
cover these expected storm totals.

Very low wind chills will develop Friday evening in the north,
spreading to all areas Saturday. Wind chills will fall below zero
for at least a time in most locations. Actual high temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Lows are expected
to be well below zero Monday morning for many areas. The Extreme
Cold Watch was upgraded to a Warning to account for this danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week, with
highs climbing into the 30s but lows remaining below 20 each night.
This will refreeze and compact existing snow and sleet, keeping road
conditions treacherous into at least late week. There is a bit of a
signal in the ensemble guidance for a weak system near next Friday,
but no additional precipitation should occur after Sunday until at
least then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Broken high clouds this evening will give way to mid level clouds
lifting into the CWA late tonight and Friday. At the same time, an
Arctic cold front drops into the region tonight and spreads over
the CWA Friday morning with gusty northeasterly winds.
Precipitation chances then develop Friday afternoon from southwest
to northeast and have added Prob30 groups for timing of the onset
of a wintry mix. VFR conditions are currently forecast, though
MVFR conditions could develop within the precip across southeast
Oklahoma Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 28 8 11 / 0 20 100 100
FSM 33 39 17 20 / 0 20 100 100
MLC 35 39 14 18 / 0 50 100 100
BVO 21 24 4 10 / 0 20 90 100
FYV 26 32 9 15 / 0 20 100 100
BYV 25 27 8 12 / 0 10 90 100
MKO 32 33 12 15 / 0 30 100 100
MIO 22 23 5 10 / 0 10 90 100
F10 32 32 9 14 / 0 40 100 100
HHW 40 42 19 22 / 10 70 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20

FXUS64 KTSA 230508
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A potent arctic front will push through Friday morning and
will bring life threatening cold to the area beginning Friday
night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing
climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire
forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible
at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Surface analysis from across the country shows the much
anticipated Arctic cold front draped across northern/central KS as
of this writing. The front will be moving into northeast OK and
northwest AR in the next couple of hours. Behind the boundary,
temperatures will fall steadily through the overnight hours and
continue to fall through the daytime Friday. Because temperatures
will not follow the typical diurnal curve, they may need to be
adjusted overnight tonight and during the daytime Friday.

From latest model guidance, temperatures should fall below
freezing north of I-40 by or just after sunrise and by mid-late
afternoon south. The frontal boundary will initially bring in
some very dry air near the surface, especially across northeast
OK. Hi-res models indicate light precipitation developing through
the morning and even into the afternoon from the approaching storm
system, mainly across eastern OK. Dewpoint depressions will be
quite large across northeast OK through the daytime, greater than
25 degrees in many areas. If precipitation is able to reach the
ground, it will be light with little to no accumulations expected.
South of I-40, air near the surface will not be quite as dry.
Light rain may mix with some sleet during the morning and
afternoon from McAlester latitude and southward, with best
chances closer to the Red River. Surface temperatures through much
of the afternoon should stay above freezing as the precipitation
falls, and light rain accumulations are possible.

The frontal boundary will also bring in some gusty northeast
winds. Gusts up to 35 mph will be probable initially, especially
across much of northeast OK. Winds are expected to be slightly
lighter south of I-40. But regardless, these winds will make
temperatures feel much colder. Daytime highs Friday will occur
before sunrise, with temperatures falling into the 20s north of
I-40 by late in the morning. Wind chill values will steadily fall
from the teens to the single digits, and even below 0 degrees near
the OK/KS border. Needless to say, it is going to be cold and
feel colder!

Mejia


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Overall, no drastic changes were made from the previous forecast.
Latest suite of forecast models continue to suggest there will be
two rounds of heavy wintry precipitation between Friday night and
Sunday afternoon. Consensus in model data show the first wave
will arrive between sunset and midnight Friday evening/night.
Despite being less than 24 hours from the onset of the moderate to
heavy wintry precipitation, there are still many uncertainties on
how temperatures above the inversion will behave, which will
ultimately affect precipitation type and amounts. Snow should be
the predominate precip type north of I-40. However, forecast
soundings from the NAM and GFS have been consistent in showing a
pronounced warm nose hovering around the freezing line near the
700mb layer as far north as Tulsa and Fayetteville overnight
Friday into Saturday morning. This would suggest a mixture of
sleet and snow will fall, at least initially, generally between
I-40 and Highway 412. South of I-40, there is a lot more
uncertainty. Light to moderate precipitation may already be
ongoing by the start of the long-term period as strong moisture
and warm air advection are drawn into the region from the south.
Precipitation is expected to start off as liquid rain, especially
closer to the Red River, but there may be enough dry air aloft for
a production of sleet to mix in with the rain by late afternoon
or early evening. Once surface temperatures drop below freezing
after sunset, a mixture of freezing rain and sleet will prevail.
How much freezing rain will fall is still debatable at this time,
but the highest chance for ice accumulations up to a couple of
tenths of an inch will mostly be across Choctaw and Pushmataha
counties and perhaps southern portions of Pittsburg, Latimer, and
Le Flore counties.

Moderate to heavy precipitation from the first wave will continue
through the overnight hours Friday and will begin to exit to the
east of the forecast area sometime late morning Saturday. Snowfall
amounts through noon Saturday vary depending on which model you
look at, and again, will be mostly confined along and north of
I-40. Snow amounts between 4 and 8 inches seems reasonable,
locally higher, for this first round of heavy precipitation.
Meanwhile, south of I-40, sleet accumulations around 1 to 3 inches
is not out of question, but will highly depend how much freezing
rain is able to mix in.

A lull in heavy precipitation is still expected to occur Saturday
afternoon and into the evening. Both global and hi-res models
continue to show a chance of lighter precipitation periodically
through the afternoon, with maybe additional light snow and sleet accumulations. If drier air aloft is able to infiltrate during
this lull period, there could be a period of freezing drizzle,
even north of I-40, before the next heavy round arrives. This will
have to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. The second
round of moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to arrive
mid to late evening Saturday as a Baja Low moves onshore over
northwest Mexico and merges with the main upper level trough over
the Great Basin/Dessert Southwest. This second round will persist
overnight Saturday and through at least mid to late morning
Sunday, perhaps lingering into the afternoon for portions of
western AR before shifting east. Additional snowfall amounts
between 4 and 8 inches can be expected north of I-40 during this
period, with generally 2 to 4 inches of a mix of sleet and snow
south.

Total snowfall amounts from Friday night through Sunday afternoon
will generally range between 8 and 12 inches near and north of
I-40. However, guidance, especially hi-res guidance, has been
persistent in showing periodic high snowfall rates (1 to 2 inches
an hour) from intense snow bands. Localized snow amounts 15 to 20
inches cannot be ruled out in a few locations, especially if any
convective snow bands setup. These amounts do include sleet too,
but sleet accumulations should stay below an inch at this time.
South of I-40, sleet amounts are expected to overpower any snow
accumulations, with up to 4 inches of sleet piling up for a few
locations. The best chance of snow south of I-40 will actually
occur Sunday morning, once the 850mb front is able to push south
across southeast OK. This is where 2 to 3 inches of snow may fall
on top of any ice and sleet that has fallen. As for ice amounts,
as mentioned above, the highest probabilities for freezing rain
will occur in Choctaw and Pushmataha counties, where anywhere from
a glaze to a few tenths of an inch will be possible, mainly
falling late Friday night into Saturday morning. This could result
in localized power outages for this area. This event will have
very high impacts for everyone, regardless how much snow, sleet,
or ice falls. And they will fall. Travel will be extremely
difficult to impossible at times, especially during the heaviest
precipitation and before things start to melt. Stay home this
weekend, if possible.

Temperatures and especially wind chill temperatures will become
dangerous north of I-40 by Friday night and spreading south of
I-40 by Saturday morning. Actual high temperatures Saturday and
Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Meanwhile, overnight lows will
fall to the single digits Friday night for the majority of the
area and for all of the area Saturday night. The coldest night is
expected to be Sunday night into Monday morning after the storm
system departs, winds calm down, and skies begin to clear. Strong
radiational cooling will occur at the same time when there is
potentially several inches of snow/sleet on the ground. Actual
temperatures will fall well below zero for most locations, save
near the Red River, Sunday night into Monday morning. Breezy
northerly winds Friday night through Sunday evening will
contribute to wind chills below zero or in the single digits for
much of the forecast area between Saturday morning and Sunday
night. Please remember to protect vulnerable people, pets, plants,
and pipes over the next several days. Use space heaters and
generators properly.

Temperatures will be slow to rise after Monday. Temps are expected
to finally rise above freezing (briefly) Tuesday afternoon and
again Wednesday afternoon. This likely will not be enough to melt
all of the snow and sleet on the ground and any melting that does
occur will likely refreeze both Tuesday night and Wednesday night
when temperatures fall back below freezing. Any existing snow and
sleet on the ground will compact, keeping road conditions less
than ideal through the remainder of the workweek. Good news is
that no additional precipitation is expected beyond Sunday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mid clouds underneath ongoing broken high clouds will continue to
spread across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight and
Friday while an Arctic airmass overtakes the region. Increasing low
level moisture overriding this cold airmass will aid in
precipitation development Friday afternoon and becoming more likely
Friday evening from southwest to northeast. Will continue Prob30
groups for timing of onset with wintry precip in the prevailing
group near the end of the TAF period. Within the preicp, MVFR
conditions are anticipated, and then become common by the end of the
period. Winds start out east to northeast, increase overnight, and
remain gusty through the period behind the Arctic cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 24 26 8 11 / 0 30 100 90
FSM 31 34 17 20 / 0 20 100 100
MLC 32 37 15 18 / 0 50 100 100
BVO 18 21 4 10 / 0 30 100 90
FYV 23 27 9 15 / 0 10 100 100
BYV 23 24 8 13 / 0 10 100 100
MKO 29 30 13 16 / 0 30 100 100
MIO 21 22 6 10 / 0 10 100 90
F10 29 31 10 14 / 0 40 100 100
HHW 39 41 20 22 / 10 70 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20

FXUS64 KTSA 231723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A potent arctic front will push through Friday morning and
will bring life threatening cold to the area beginning Friday
night, continuing into early next week.

- A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing
climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire
forecast area.

- Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible
at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Surface analysis from across the country shows the much
anticipated Arctic cold front draped across northern/central KS as
of this writing. The front will be moving into northeast OK and
northwest AR in the next couple of hours. Behind the boundary,
temperatures will fall steadily through the overnight hours and
continue to fall through the daytime Friday. Because temperatures
will not follow the typical diurnal curve, they may need to be
adjusted overnight tonight and during the daytime Friday.

From latest model guidance, temperatures should fall below
freezing north of I-40 by or just after sunrise and by mid-late
afternoon south. The frontal boundary will initially bring in
some very dry air near the surface, especially across northeast
OK. Hi-res models indicate light precipitation developing through
the morning and even into the afternoon from the approaching storm
system, mainly across eastern OK. Dewpoint depressions will be
quite large across northeast OK through the daytime, greater than
25 degrees in many areas. If precipitation is able to reach the
ground, it will be light with little to no accumulations expected.
South of I-40, air near the surface will not be quite as dry.
Light rain may mix with some sleet during the morning and
afternoon from McAlester latitude and southward, with best
chances closer to the Red River. Surface temperatures through much
of the afternoon should stay above freezing as the precipitation
falls, and light rain accumulations are possible.

The frontal boundary will also bring in some gusty northeast
winds. Gusts up to 35 mph will be probable initially, especially
across much of northeast OK. Winds are expected to be slightly
lighter south of I-40. But regardless, these winds will make
temperatures feel much colder. Daytime highs Friday will occur
before sunrise, with temperatures falling into the 20s north of
I-40 by late in the morning. Wind chill values will steadily fall
from the teens to the single digits, and even below 0 degrees near
the OK/KS border. Needless to say, it is going to be cold and
feel colder!

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Overall, no drastic changes were made from the previous forecast.
Latest suite of forecast models continue to suggest there will be
two rounds of heavy wintry precipitation between Friday night and
Sunday afternoon. Consensus in model data show the first wave
will arrive between sunset and midnight Friday evening/night.
Despite being less than 24 hours from the onset of the moderate to
heavy wintry precipitation, there are still many uncertainties on
how temperatures above the inversion will behave, which will
ultimately affect precipitation type and amounts. Snow should be
the predominate precip type north of I-40. However, forecast
soundings from the NAM and GFS have been consistent in showing a
pronounced warm nose hovering around the freezing line near the
700mb layer as far north as Tulsa and Fayetteville overnight
Friday into Saturday morning. This would suggest a mixture of
sleet and snow will fall, at least initially, generally between
I-40 and Highway 412. South of I-40, there is a lot more
uncertainty. Light to moderate precipitation may already be
ongoing by the start of the long-term period as strong moisture
and warm air advection are drawn into the region from the south.
Precipitation is expected to start off as liquid rain, especially
closer to the Red River, but there may be enough dry air aloft for
a production of sleet to mix in with the rain by late afternoon
or early evening. Once surface temperatures drop below freezing
after sunset, a mixture of freezing rain and sleet will prevail.
How much freezing rain will fall is still debatable at this time,
but the highest chance for ice accumulations up to a couple of
tenths of an inch will mostly be across Choctaw and Pushmataha
counties and perhaps southern portions of Pittsburg, Latimer, and
Le Flore counties.

Moderate to heavy precipitation from the first wave will continue
through the overnight hours Friday and will begin to exit to the
east of the forecast area sometime late morning Saturday. Snowfall
amounts through noon Saturday vary depending on which model you
look at, and again, will be mostly confined along and north of
I-40. Snow amounts between 4 and 8 inches seems reasonable,
locally higher, for this first round of heavy precipitation.
Meanwhile, south of I-40, sleet accumulations around 1 to 3 inches
is not out of question, but will highly depend how much freezing
rain is able to mix in.

A lull in heavy precipitation is still expected to occur Saturday
afternoon and into the evening. Both global and hi-res models
continue to show a chance of lighter precipitation periodically
through the afternoon, with maybe additional light snow and sleet accumulations. If drier air aloft is able to infiltrate during
this lull period, there could be a period of freezing drizzle,
even north of I-40, before the next heavy round arrives. This will
have to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. The second
round of moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to arrive
mid to late evening Saturday as a Baja Low moves onshore over
northwest Mexico and merges with the main upper level trough over
the Great Basin/Dessert Southwest. This second round will persist
overnight Saturday and through at least mid to late morning
Sunday, perhaps lingering into the afternoon for portions of
western AR before shifting east. Additional snowfall amounts
between 4 and 8 inches can be expected north of I-40 during this
period, with generally 2 to 4 inches of a mix of sleet and snow
south.

Total snowfall amounts from Friday night through Sunday afternoon
will generally range between 8 and 12 inches near and north of
I-40. However, guidance, especially hi-res guidance, has been
persistent in showing periodic high snowfall rates (1 to 2 inches
an hour) from intense snow bands. Localized snow amounts 15 to 20
inches cannot be ruled out in a few locations, especially if any
convective snow bands setup. These amounts do include sleet too,
but sleet accumulations should stay below an inch at this time.
South of I-40, sleet amounts are expected to overpower any snow
accumulations, with up to 4 inches of sleet piling up for a few
locations. The best chance of snow south of I-40 will actually
occur Sunday morning, once the 850mb front is able to push south
across southeast OK. This is where 2 to 3 inches of snow may fall
on top of any ice and sleet that has fallen. As for ice amounts,
as mentioned above, the highest probabilities for freezing rain
will occur in Choctaw and Pushmataha counties, where anywhere from
a glaze to a few tenths of an inch will be possible, mainly
falling late Friday night into Saturday morning. This could result
in localized power outages for this area. This event will have
very high impacts for everyone, regardless how much snow, sleet,
or ice falls. And they will fall. Travel will be extremely
difficult to impossible at times, especially during the heaviest
precipitation and before things start to melt. Stay home this
weekend, if possible.

Temperatures and especially wind chill temperatures will become
dangerous north of I-40 by Friday night and spreading south of
I-40 by Saturday morning. Actual high temperatures Saturday and
Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Meanwhile, overnight lows will
fall to the single digits Friday night for the majority of the
area and for all of the area Saturday night. The coldest night is
expected to be Sunday night into Monday morning after the storm
system departs, winds calm down, and skies begin to clear. Strong
radiational cooling will occur at the same time when there is
potentially several inches of snow/sleet on the ground. Actual
temperatures will fall well below zero for most locations, save
near the Red River, Sunday night into Monday morning. Breezy
northerly winds Friday night through Sunday evening will
contribute to wind chills below zero or in the single digits for
much of the forecast area between Saturday morning and Sunday
night. Please remember to protect vulnerable people, pets, plants,
and pipes over the next several days. Use space heaters and
generators properly.

Temperatures will be slow to rise after Monday. Temps are expected
to finally rise above freezing (briefly) Tuesday afternoon and
again Wednesday afternoon. This likely will not be enough to melt
all of the snow and sleet on the ground and any melting that does
occur will likely refreeze both Tuesday night and Wednesday night
when temperatures fall back below freezing. Any existing snow and
sleet on the ground will compact, keeping road conditions less
than ideal through the remainder of the workweek. Good news is
that no additional precipitation is expected beyond Sunday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the
afternoon. Thereafter flight conditions will deteriorate
overnight area wide with expanding snow and sleet impacting all
terminals. Areas of IFR to LIFR conditions are likely from late
evening through early Saturday morning. An improving flight level
trend is likely from west to east beginning mid to late Sat
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 28 9 11 7 / 10 100 90 100
FSM 39 17 20 13 / 10 100 100 100
MLC 39 16 18 9 / 20 100 100 100
BVO 25 5 10 5 / 10 100 90 100
FYV 30 9 16 7 / 10 100 100 100
BYV 24 8 11 8 / 0 100 100 100
MKO 33 13 16 8 / 10 100 100 100
MIO 23 8 10 6 / 10 100 90 100
F10 31 11 14 7 / 10 100 100 100
HHW 46 20 20 13 / 50 100 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07

FXUS64 KTSA 231730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1130 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A very high impact winter storm will arrive tonight through Sunday,
bringing climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the
entire forecast area.

- Life threatening cold will also develop tonight, continuing through
Monday morning. Lows Monday morning will be near or below
zero.

- Travel will become very difficult to nearly impossible at times.

- Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal
impacts will persist for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

An arctic front has moved through the forecast area. Very cold and
dry air is pouring in from the north. Northerly winds will gust to
25-35 mph through the remainder of the day. Temperatures will remain
below freezing for northeast OK and northwest AR through the
afternoon. Areas south of I-40 will gradually cool to freezing by
late afternoon. Meanwhile, precipitation will slowly spread north
during the afternoon and evening hours. The initially dry lower
levels will limit precipitation potential, especially in the north.
Most model guidance shows precipitation reaching the ground by late
afternoon or early evening for southeast OK, spreading to the
remainder of the area during the late evening.

By late evening, surface temperatures will be in the teens north of
I-40, and 25-30 F south of there. This is expected to result in
mostly snow (some sleet may mix in) for northern areas. The forecast
is more uncertain for central and southern areas, with a gradual
transition from mostly snow to mostly sleet heading south. Some CAM
guidance shows mostly snow in the McAlester to Fort Smith Corridor,
and if this occurred it could snow upwards of 8-12 inches tonight.
But there is other guidance showing mostly sleet, so in this case
perhaps a couple of inches of sleet would fall instead. Some of
these differences can be tied to model microphysics differences
rather than actual meteorological uncertainty. As the exact corridor
of transition will likely be variable, trended the forecast to more
of a blend of sleet and snow for a good chunk of central and
southeast OK as well as west-central AR. Any freezing rain should be
limited to far southeast OK, and even there sleet will dominate. A
few rumbles of thunder may occur in southeast OK where there are
hints of minimal convective instability. Models have commonly
underestimated this threat in similar patterns in the past. In terms
of intensity, snowfall rates in the heavier bands may reach as high
as 2 inches per hour, creating extremely treacherous travel
conditions.

There is a clear trend in 12z model guidance for lighter
precipitation tonight north of the I-44 corridor, with the heaviest
axis of precipitation shifted south. The current forecast was
updated to slightly tamp down on precip totals to reflect this, but
it does not change the overall messaging of high impact winter
weather that will occur. Future shifts may continue with further
adjustments if these trends continue. For central and northern
areas, total snow through Saturday morning will range from 3 to as
much as 12 inches. Sleet totals will range from 1-3 inches, with
central OK and west-central AR seeing a mixture of both types as
noted earlier. Freezing rain accumulations will mostly be 0.15
inches or less and right near the Red River. Temperatures by
Saturday morning will be in the single digits in the north, and
teens in the south. Wind chills Saturday morning may reach -5 to -15
F north of I-40, and +9 to -5 F south of there.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Light snow and sleet will diminish Saturday morning. Most guidance
is now in agreement on a break for most if not all of the forecast
area Saturday late morning into mid afternoon. Southeast OK would
have the best chance of light sleet persisting through this period. Temperatures will remain bitterly cold, generally pretty close to 10
F in the north, and 15-20 F in the south. It will remain breezy with
very low wind chills.

By mid afternoon Saturday the next phase of this storm system will
commence. Model trends this morning have shifted the 2nd
precipitation band slightly southeast and slightly drier. They have
also trended towards pulling sleet slightly further north at onset,
perhaps as far north as a line from Okmulgee to Fayetteville. But
even if this does occur, sleet will transition to snow for all areas
by Sunday morning. With cooling upper levels the snow ratios are
expected to become excellent, perhaps 15-1 or better near the end of
the storm. This second phase will drop another 3 to 12 inches of
snow in the north and up to 1-3 inches of sleet in the south (may
end up being more snow than sleet). Overall storm totals will mostly
be between 6 and 16 inches of snow (central and north) with 2-4
inches of sleet in the south, with blending expected in the middle.
An isolated storm total of up to 20 inches is possible, but not
expected. Snow will end by Sunday early afternoon.

Skies will clear Sunday night with winds going nearly calm.
Considering these factors and a deep snowpack, low temperatures will
fall to zero or below for the entire forecast area. Some typically
cold areas may fall below -10 F. Any slight breezes will make it
feel even colder. Temperatures will probably climb into the low to
mid 20s Monday and perhaps above freezing for a few hours Tuesday or
Wednesday afternoon before an additional push of cold air arrives.
This will then keep high temperatures below freezing with lows in
the teens into at least late week. Unfortunately this implies that
very little of what falls will melt until at least late next week,
with road conditions remaining extremely poor until at least then.
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the
afternoon. Thereafter flight conditions will deteriorate
overnight area wide with expanding snow and sleet impacting all
terminals. Areas of IFR to LIFR conditions are likely from late
evening through early Saturday morning. An improving flight level
trend is likely from west to east beginning mid to late Sat
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 9 11 7 16 / 100 90 100 80
FSM 17 20 13 20 / 100 100 100 80
MLC 16 18 9 18 / 100 100 100 80
BVO 5 10 5 14 / 100 90 100 60
FYV 9 16 7 17 / 100 100 100 80
BYV 8 11 8 15 / 100 100 100 80
MKO 13 16 8 16 / 100 100 100 80
MIO 8 10 6 14 / 100 90 100 80
F10 11 14 7 16 / 100 100 100 80
HHW 20 20 13 19 / 100 100 100 70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ049-053>076.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07