ACUS11 KWNS 232350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232350=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and
southern Arkansas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 232350Z - 240445Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across
portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over
the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern
Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain
rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into
southern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate
precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into
southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These
plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic
upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic
response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to
gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result
in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into
southern AR.=20

At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that
temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer
than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings
(implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be
better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft
(especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and
suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation
type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts
further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and
southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls
on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet
observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the
next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region.

Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates
up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into
southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary
precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to
heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose
at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet
to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours
roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast.

..Moore.. 01/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7grxUbYkKFctfZEUe_-wb-28X-pyndrIsWwwCSwUU8EVbOjIPxvTDkyhNajorVo25kK657IEs= K6wPlEKh8hpi4yyYow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891
34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540
34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121
33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522=20


=3D =3D =3D
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