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  • 3 X-class flares in less than 24 hours... and counting...

    From nw7us@nw7us@hfradio.removethispart.org (Tomas) to alt.ham-radio.hf,alt.ham-radio.ssb,rec.radio.amateur,rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.shortwave on Mon Nov 3 13:21:23 2003
    From Newsgroup: alt.ham-radio.ssb

    At the time of writing this bulletin, there has been three X-class flares
    in less than 24 hours. The first was an X8.3 flare from region 486 on 2-XI-2003, at 1725Z. Then, today (3-XI-2003) at 0130Z there was an X2.7
    flare from region 488, followed at 0955Z by an X4.3 flare from the same
    region.

    The CME associated with the X2.7 flare probably will not reach Earth. A
    radio burst was associated with the X4.3, indicating a possible CME for
    this flare, as well. However, due to its position, it is doubtful if this
    CME will impact Earth.

    At the moment the geomagnetic conditions are quiet, with the The
    north-south interplanetary magnetic field component (Bz) remaining
    positive. There is a flow from a small coronal hole in the sun's southern hemisphere that is expected to arrive now. It is hard to know if it has arrived due to the loss of ACE data due to the proton storm. The proton
    event associated with the X8.3 flare continues, and is extended somewhat by these new flares, masking some of the readings we use.

    The CME associated with the X8.3 flare will glance us sometime late on 3-XI-2003 to mid 4-XI-2003. We expect a possibly strong geomagnetic storm
    in the next 24 hours, as a result.

    The solar 10.7-cm flux is starting to drop, but is still high enough to
    support propagation on the high HF frequenies. The low bands will suffer somewhat when the Kp index starts to rise later today due to shock expected from the CME, and from the flow from the current coronal hole.

    Region 486 and 488 are rotating around the western limb of the sun by 5-XI-2003, and flaring should quiet down somewhat. Until then, some
    additional C, M, and X flare activity is possible. The coronal hole
    activity, however, will continue through this week, at least.

    73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
    --
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  • From Ron Hardin@rhhardin@mindspring.com to alt.ham-radio.hf,alt.ham-radio.ssb,rec.radio.amateur,rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.shortwave on Mon Nov 3 14:00:54 2003
    From Newsgroup: alt.ham-radio.ssb

    Tomas wrote:
    At the moment the geomagnetic conditions are quiet, with the The
    north-south interplanetary magnetic field component (Bz) remaining
    positive. There is a flow from a small coronal hole in the sun's

    Bz changes sign in a few minutes so I don't know that it matters on
    the scale of a report. It's whatever tangle of field lines the solar
    particles are carrying at the moment, not something large scale.

    Charged particles can't cross field lines, and the particles aren't
    going to stay put, so the field lines go with them. That's mathematics
    for you.
    --
    Ron Hardin
    rhhardin@mindspring.com

    On the internet, nobody knows you're a jerk.
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