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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
ARLP001 The ARRL Solar Report

ZCZC AP01
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001

From ARRL Headquarters

Newington, CT January 2, 2026
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP001
ARLP001 The ARRL Solar Report

The January 2, 2026, report from Spaceweather.com has updated details about
the Coronal Mass Ejections predicted to hit the Earth on January 3 and 4.


Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed through January 4, 2026,
due to a combination of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream and Coronal Mass Ejection activity. There is the potential for glancing influences late into January 3 from CMEs that left the Sun on December 28 to 30. Additional enhancements are possible again on January 4, with the possible indirect
impact of the CME that left the Sun on January 2.


By early January 3, the arrival of December 31 is expected to cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional geomagnetic storming is anticipated on January 4 with the possible impact of the January 2 CME.


Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low through January 24, with C-class flares expected throughout the outlook period. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) range from a chance to likely at times as active
regions evolve and rotate on/off the disk. X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) range from a slight chance to a chance during periods of enhanced active region complexity.


Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, January 1, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:


"In mid-December 2025, we observed a relatively significant decline in solar activity within the approximately 27-day fluctuation caused by the rotation
of the Sun. It seemed that the maximum of the eleven-year cycle would end
after a period of high activity in 2024-2025. However, a significant increase in solar activity in the second half of December suggests the opposite-solar activity will probably remain relatively high in 2026!


"Based on increased flare activity, accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the last days of 2025, geomagnetic disturbances can be predicted in the first days of 2026. Their probability should increase since January 1 (G1 level) until January 3 (when G2 level can be expected). Calm days should
follow since January 5.


"In the current eleven-year cycle, we have become accustomed to the fact that the parameters of the ionosphere differ from those measured in previous
cycles at the same level of solar activity. For example, the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer are significantly lower. This will probably also apply to the rest of the cycle. Even so, the forecast of a
slower decline in solar activity is favorable for the shortwave propagation."


Region 4330 was responsible for two eruptions seen in SUVI imagery.
The first was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), first observed
in coronagraph imagery December 30, 2025, and was closely followed by a
second CME from the northeast quadrant, potentially from near Region 4324.
None of their modeled trajectory indicated a direct impact near Earth.

Further coronagraph images are necessary to evaluate whether the second eruption from Region 4330 will result in a visible CME.

No other Earth-directed CME was observed during the period.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares through January 2, 2026, due to the current magnetic complexity and
development of the active regions on the visible solar disk.


Periods of active conditions are likely on January 9 and 10, and on January
12 to 14 due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.


The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at: https://youtu.be/jmeefUKgN6o?si=_cHekumd2JskrU_F [ https://youtu.be/jmeefUKgN6o?si=_cHekumd2JskrU_F ]


The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 3, 2026, to January 9 is 15, 12,
5, 5, 5, 5, and 15, with a mean of 8.9. Predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 4,
2, 2, 2, 2, and 4, with a mean of 2.9. 10.7-centimeter flux is 160, 155, 150, 155, 140, 130, and 125, with a mean of 145.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us [ http://k9la.us/ ] .


Also, check this: "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio(R)

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