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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
ARLP002 The ARRL Solar Report

ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002

From ARRL Headquarters

Newington, CT January 9, 2026
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 The ARRL Solar Report

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on January 13 and 14, and then from January 17 to 20.


Unsettled levels are likely on January 12, and then from January 21 and 22.
All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.


A tracking model from NOAA/SWPC shows a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) could
pass close to Earth by January 11. Multiple faint coronal mass ejections were observed off the SE limb originating from Region 4334. However, modeling appeared to show no Earth-directed component.


Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (45 percent) for M-class flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate), and a slight chance (10 percent) for isolated X-class flares (R3-strong) until January 10.


Solar wind parameters became mildly enhanced after January 7. However,
Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) influence is expected to persist through January 10.


Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on January 10 and 11
as the coronal hole moves further into a geo-effective position, along with
the possible arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on January 8, with a chance
for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions late on January 10.


Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, January 8, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:


"According to the original forecast, solar activity was expected to gradually decline until mid-January. However, an active region, AR4336, emerged in the southeast of the solar disk, in a location where nothing unusual had occurred during the previous solar rotation. As a result, overall solar activity is already beginning to increase.


"Other formations important for the forecast are coronal holes No. 12 and 13, whose proximity to active regions will cause an intensification of the solar wind. Its effects will be felt in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere since January 9, when the shorter disturbance is expected. This will be followed by a brief lull and a renewed increase in geomagnetic activity
before mid-January.


"The forecast for the coming days is very uncertain. If the situation from
the last solar rotation repeats itself, solar activity could continue to increase since mid-January, while the days of January 15-18 could be geomagnetically active or even disturbed. However, it seems that a reliable forecast cannot be made at this time."


The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 10 to 16 is 8, 5, 10, 15, 15, 5, and 5, with a mean of 9. Predicted Planetary K Index is 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7-centimeter flux is 135, 130, 135, 135, 140, 145, and 145, with a mean of 137.9.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us [ http://k9la.us/ ] .


Also, check this: "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio(R)

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